The probability of Donald Trump's impeachment increases to 70%, which could cause the price of the TRUMP token to drop to an all-time low?

Official TRUMP (TRUMP) is currently trading around $3,115 USD, down 5.15% on the day, and continues to face downward pressure as it moves closer to the historical low (ATL) zone at $2,705 USD. The Fibonacci structure shows that price has lost the 0.236 level at $3,128 USD—while also revealing a liquidity gap, as there is no significant support zone underneath.

On-chain signals are reinforcing the bearish trend, as holders no longer look to “buy the dip” and instead shift to exiting positions. At the same time, the increasing probability of impeachment on prediction markets is acting as a key political catalyst, further weakening the already fragile price structure.

The probability of impeachment escalates, increasing long-term instability

Kalshi—the regulated prediction market platform—is currently pricing the likelihood of President Trump being impeached before 1/1/2028 at 69%. This figure has risen steadily since 11/2025, moving from above 40% to the current level, without any clear reversal signals.

Meanwhile, short-dated contracts reflect significantly lower risk: the probability before 1/1/2027 is 14%, and before 1/6/2026 is only 2%.

Trump impeachment probability | Source: KalshiEven though the market has not priced in an event occurring immediately, the high long-term probability is creating a layer of prolonged uncertainty. This directly erodes TRUMP’s core “story,” which heavily depends on the personal image and political brand of the central figure.

Selling pressure returns, inflows weaken

Data on net position changes on the exchange from 3/3 to 3/25 shows that the early part of March was completely dominated by net outflows, at a scale of 5 million TRUMP tokens—10 million TRUMP tokens per day. The peak was on 3/7, when nearly 10 million TRUMP tokens were withdrawn from the system.

A short-term reversal momentum appeared on 3/13–3/14 when inflows reached around 22 million TRUMP tokens—the highest level in the period. This upswing coincided with a rebound to the Fibonacci 0.786 zone at $4,114 USD. However, the buying pressure was unable to sustain momentum, as inflows quickly weakened and returned to a neutral state starting from 3/17.

Net position change of TRUMP on the exchange | Source: GlassnodeThe lack of continued buying power after the inflow spike is a bearish signal. Price only recovered temporarily before stabilizing at a lower range, reflecting sell-off behavior during the short-term traders’ rebound phase, rather than a process of sustainable accumulation.

Holders accept selling at a loss, clear “giving up” signals

The net realized profit/loss chart from 3/6 to 3/25 records a continuous run of losing sessions, with no day shifting into a positive state.

Notably, on 3/14, the losses reached a record level of roughly -70 million USD, matching a wave of large inflows into the exchange. This confirms that the TRUMP token amounts transferred to the exchange were primarily intended to be sold at a loss, rather than accumulated.

Even though the scale of losses narrowed to around -5 to -15 million USD per day in the latter part of the month, the negative state remained continuous. This is a typical sign of the “giving up” phase—when holders exit their positions regardless of price, instead of a healthy capital-rotation cycle.

The losses TRUMP has to bear | Source: Glassnode## Risk of setting a new historical low

Breaking the Fibonacci 0.236 level at $3,128 USD has eliminated the last layer of support before the historical low zone. The Fibonacci range now extends from $2,705 (0 level) to $4,497 (1.0 level).

With the prior downside swing of about 22.98%, an adjustment equivalent to that level—or simply another drop of roughly 13% from the current level—would be enough to push the price below $2,705, thereby establishing a new historical low.

TRUMP price analysis | Source: TradingViewOn the other hand, a daily close above $3,390 (Fibonacci 0.382) would be the first stabilizing signal. If the price holds firmly above $3,812, the market structure could shift from a downtrend to neutral, while also invalidating the breakdown-below-low scenario.

Until these thresholds are reclaimed, on-chain data still clearly tilts toward the continuation scenario of the downtrend, with the nearest target being the $2,705 zone.

Ông Giáo