Polymarket: The probability that the US Department of Homeland Security will end the shutdown by March 31 drops to 54%

Gate News reports that on March 25, the U.S. Senate voted to approve Senator Marlin’s appointment as Secretary of Homeland Security. The probability of the event “U.S. Department of Homeland Security closing by March 31” on Polymarket has dropped to 54%, down 26% in the past hour, with nearly $1 million in trading volume. Additionally, the probability of “U.S. Department of Homeland Security ending the shutdown before the end of March” has temporarily surged, currently at 24%, up 13% in the past hour; the probability of “U.S. Department of Homeland Security closing from March 24 to 27” is at 13%, up 3% in the past hour.

At last week’s nomination hearing, Marlin expressed support for the Trump administration’s immigration policies and urged Democrats to quickly vote to pass the Department of Homeland Security budget to restart the department. Marlin stated, “As Secretary of Homeland Security, I will protect everyone. My goal over the past six months has been to prevent the Department of Homeland Security from making headlines every day.” Since last year, the Department of Homeland Security has repeatedly made headlines over issues such as cracking down on illegal immigration. Democrats are demanding reforms to the Department of Homeland Security and federal law enforcement actions, or they will threaten not to support the budget. The Department of Homeland Security has been shut down since February 14 due to funding exhaustion.

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to Disclaimer.

Related Articles

Prediction Markets Show Stark Wealth Concentration: 84% of Traders Lose Money

Prediction markets show stark wealth concentration, with 84.1% of Polymarket traders losing money, while just 0.04% hold over 70% of profits. Legislative efforts like the BETS OFF Act aim to regulate betting on sensitive events, as concerns rise over user protections amid the entry of major financial institutions.

GateNews45m ago

DAZN Partners with ADI Predictstreet to Launch Blockchain Prediction Market for 2026 World Cup

DAZN partners with ADI Predictstreet to introduce a blockchain prediction market for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Users can engage in real-time predictions, utilizing advanced technology for privacy and scalability, despite regulatory challenges in Europe.

GateNews5h ago

Hong Kong Suspends Basketball Betting Project Amid Concerns Over Prediction Markets and Illegal Gambling

Hong Kong's government has suspended its basketball betting project due to concerns over the rapid growth of prediction markets linked to illegal gambling. With monthly trading volumes rising dramatically, authorities aim to enhance public education and collaborate on measures against gambling.

GateNews12h ago

Hong Kong suspends the legalization of basketball betting and studies the impact and compliance issues of prediction markets

Hong Kong has suspended the legalization of basketball betting this week, while also planning to launch a study to assess the impact of prediction markets in Hong Kong and their level of adoption. Macie Mak, Commissioner for Home and Youth Affairs in Hong Kong, said that the monthly trading volume of prediction markets has grown from less than $100 million two years ago to more than $13 billion last year, with about 40% related to sports.

MarketWhisper14h ago

Polymarket Audits Builders Program Startups Over Insider Trading Concerns - Unchained

Polymarket has initiated an audit of its Builders Program after finding third-party tools that may facilitate insider trading by mimicking successful trades. The review follows scrutiny over potential market abuse linked to these apps.

UnchainedCrypto16h ago

Kalshi appeals Nevada event contract ban; CFTC jurisdiction dispute may reach the Supreme Court

Prediction market platform Kalshi has appealed a ruling by the state of Nevada banning its event contracts, and the U.S. Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals held oral arguments on April 17, but did not issue an immediate decision after the hearing. The core dispute in the case is whether Kalshi’s event contracts are “swap agreements” that fall under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), or whether they must be regulated by state-level activity under gambling licensing regimes. Multiple legal experts predict that the case may ultimately be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

MarketWhisper17h ago
Comment
0/400
No comments