Gate News reports that on March 11, according to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a address with an 88% win rate in the Middle East sector has been continuously increasing its bet on the prediction “U.S.-Iran ceasefire in April” over the past six hours. The total wager is $11,400, with an opening average price of 50.4¢, currently at 51.5¢.
Trump continues to publicly state that this war will end “very soon,” and says the war is already “very complete, pretty much.” An American official familiar with Pentagon estimates said that the ammunition used in the first two days of the war alone cost $560 million, a figure submitted to Congress this week.
Crude oil prices retreated after Trump said the war would end “very soon,” but gasoline prices have not returned to pre-war levels. Analysts say that as long as the security risk in the Strait of Hormuz persists, fuel prices will remain high.
Note: Based on this trader’s past trading profile, they are not betting on whether the event will actually happen, but may close positions for profit or loss at certain points after opening. Account address: 0x2974bd0059e48f215c391882976e0f1b4c8c9c23.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Encourage innovation! A U.S. judge bans Arizona’s regulation of prediction markets and suspends the prosecution of Kalshi
A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona may not rely on its gambling law to prosecute the prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the line between state and federal authority in financial market regulation, while Kalshi maintains that its business is a financial product rather than traditional gambling. Decisions by states on prediction markets have differed, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.
CryptoCity36m ago
Encouraging innovation! U.S. judges ban Arizona from regulating prediction markets, and pause the prosecution against Kalshi
A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona cannot use its gambling laws to prosecute the prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority in financial market regulation, and Kalshi insists that its business is financial products rather than traditional gambling. Rulings on prediction markets vary across states, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.
CryptoCity3h ago
Encouraging innovation! A U.S. judge bars Arizona from regulating a prediction market and suspends the prosecution of Kalshi
A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona is prohibited from relying on its gambling laws to prosecute prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority in financial market regulation, while Kalshi insists that its business falls under financial products rather than traditional gambling. Rulings on prediction markets vary from state to state, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.
CryptoCity6h ago
Encouraging innovation! A U.S. judge bans Arizona’s regulators from prediction markets and suspends the prosecution of Kalshi
A U.S. federal district court has ruled that Arizona is barred from using its gambling law to sue the prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the Federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority in financial market regulation, and Kalshi maintains that its business falls under financial products rather than traditional gambling. Courts in different states have issued differing rulings on prediction markets, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.
CryptoCity9h ago
Polymarket Trader Turns $500 Into $252K After UFC Makes Yet Another Scoring Error
In brief
A Polymarket trader walked away with $252,000 in profit after the UFC incorrectly identified a fight’s winner for the second time in two weeks.
An X account linked to the Polymarket trader said that they had noticed the error by looking at the bout’s official scorecard.
The
Decrypt10h ago
Polymarket reviews and weeds out early-stage projects in its ecosystem, targeting insider trading and market manipulation behaviors
Polymarket announced an audit of some of the onboarded startup projects that have been accused of using allegedly insider trading account information to steer users into making trades. The move is intended to strengthen compliance management and address external concerns about the risks of insider trading.
GateNews10h ago
