U.S. Treasury volatility drops to a four-year low! Bitcoin bull market signals strengthen, with the $100,000 mark in sight

January 15 News, as the volatility of the US Treasury market continues to decline, the mid-term bull case for Bitcoin is gaining new macro support. Since 2026, Bitcoin’s price has risen approximately 10%, and several analysts believe its price could retake the $100,000 level for the first time since November last year.

US Treasuries are regarded as core assets in the global financial system, with extremely low credit risk, and are widely used as collateral for loans, derivatives, and various financial transactions. When Treasury prices fluctuate sharply, the financial system tends to tighten, market risk appetite decreases, and stocks and crypto assets come under pressure; conversely, when the Treasury market remains stable and the credit environment improves, funds are more inclined to flow into high-risk, high-return assets.

Latest data shows that this favorable environment is taking shape. According to TradingView data, the ICE BofA MOVE index, which measures implied volatility of US Treasuries over the next four weeks, has fallen to 58, reaching its lowest level since October 2021, and continuing the downward trend since April 2025. This indicates a significant easing of tension in the US bond market, providing more favorable external conditions for risk assets.

Historically, although Bitcoin is often called “digital gold,” its price movements are more akin to tech stocks and are highly correlated with the Nasdaq 100 index, while showing a clear inverse relationship with the MOVE index. During the deep correction of Bitcoin in 2022, the MOVE index was at high levels; the rebound since 2023 has closely coincided with the continued decline in bond volatility.

Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around $96,000. Against the backdrop of declining US bond volatility, warming risk appetite, and continuous ETF fund inflows, market expectations for further upside are heating up. Some investors believe that as long as the macro environment remains stable, the probability of breaking through the $100,000 mark is increasing.

However, potential risks still exist. If new tensions arise in the Middle East or if US crypto regulation legislation progresses slower than expected, market sentiment could be disturbed. Even so, from the perspective of macro liquidity and bond market signals, Bitcoin’s bull market foundation in 2026 is becoming more solid.