On January 14, news reports indicate that under the combined influence of improved regulatory environment, a rebound in on-chain data, and changes in capital structure, discussions about “Ethereum surpassing Bitcoin in performance by 2026” have significantly heated up. Multiple indicators suggest that ETH is likely to end its recent years of relative weakness and enter a window of structural recovery.
Looking at historical performance, according to CoinGecko data, since 2023, Ethereum’s cumulative increase has been approximately 160%, which is significantly behind Bitcoin’s roughly 457% gain. This long-term gap has been a constraint on market confidence. However, overall, signs of divergence are beginning to loosen. Bitcoin’s market share rose to 66% at the beginning of 2026 before starting to decline, reflecting capital rotation from a single dominant asset to other mainstream cryptocurrencies.
Meanwhile, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has increased by about 3.6% this year. Jimmy Xue, co-founder and COO of the quantitative yield protocol Axis, stated that the rebound of ETH/BTC combined with Bitcoin’s stagnation in dominance has historically been associated with a phase of strength in altcoins, especially after Bitcoin ETF demand stabilized, prompting some funds to seek higher risk returns within the Ethereum ecosystem.
On-chain fundamentals also support this outlook. Data shows that Ethereum’s total transaction volume in 2026 increased by approximately 6.8% year-over-year, reaching an average of 2.05 million transactions per day. Since mid-December last year, this has increased by over 30%, reflecting continued growth in DeFi, Layer 2, and re-staking activities.
Overall, the market remains cautious about a full-scale “altcoin season.” Prediction platforms indicate that the probability of a large-scale altcoin rally before April 2026 is less than 20%. However, many industry experts believe that potential ETF capital inflows, fee burn mechanisms, Layer 2 expansion, and protocol upgrades such as Fusaka and Glamsterdam could gradually push Ethereum towards becoming an “AI and smart contract settlement layer.”
Although ETH’s return rate this year has slightly outperformed Bitcoin, general analysis suggests that whether it can sustain excess performance in 2026 still depends on the coordination of macro liquidity and the pace of regulatory implementation.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Bitcoin Holds Steady Near $67K Amid Bullish and Geopolitical Tension
This weekend, Bitcoin ($BTC) has shown a steady performance in line with a blend of technical and geopolitical outlook. In this respect, Bitcoin ($BTC) is changing hands at $67K with significant support levels at $64K and $65K and notable resistance at $74K. As per the data from CRYPTO Damus, the
BlockChainReporter20m ago
Metaplanet Responds to JPX Regulatory Update Consultation: It Does Not Affect the Advancement of Its Bitcoin Strategy, With More Than 216,000 Japanese Shareholders Already Participating
Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich said he respects the decision by a Japanese exchange to delay the inclusion of cryptocurrency companies, and emphasized that the company will continue to pursue its Bitcoin strategy. Through the “Project Nova” project, it will help develop Japan’s Bitcoin ecosystem; it has already attracted more than 216k shareholders and will continue to communicate with all parties.
GateNews1h ago
Bitcoin facing quantum risk: The paths to protect the biggest blockchains
A quantum computer powerful enough to break the Bitcoin blockchain does not exist yet. However, developers have already begun discussing a wave of upgrades aimed at building a defensive layer against this potential threat — and that is completely well-founded, because this risk is no longer a purely hypothetical scenario.
TapChiBitcoin1h ago
Price predictions 4/3: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, DOGE, HYPE, ADA, BCH, LINK
Key points:
Buyers are attempting to maintain BTC above the $66,500 level, but several analysts believe that the $60,000 level may crack.
Some major altcoins risk breaking below their immediate support levels, signaling that bears remain in control.
Buyers are attempting to push an
Cointelegraph2h ago
Rich Bitcoin traders lost $337M daily in first quarter of 2026
Bitcoin (BTC) traders holding 100–10,000 BTC realized losses at an average of $337 million per day in Q1 2026, the worst quarter since 2022, according to data from Glassnode.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin dropped more than 20% after whales last realized losses at a comparable pace in 2022.
Cointelegraph2h ago
Glassnode: Bitcoin whale and shark Q1 average daily losses exceed $300 million
On April 5, Glassnode data showed that in the first quarter, the “sharks” holding 100–1,000 BTC and the “giant whales” holding 1,000–10,000 BTC together incurred losses of about $337 million, with total losses of $30.9 billion year to date. Long-term holders are losing about $200 million per day on average, and the market expects Bitcoin’s potential bottom range to be between $40k and $50k.
GateNews2h ago
