Regarding the medium-term trend of Ripple (XRP), the market is once again showing bullish signals. Cryptocurrency analyst Bird pointed out that the structural changes in Bitcoin market dominance (BTC Dominance) are recreating the historical pattern that has repeatedly driven XRP to surge significantly in the past. XRP may be on the verge of a new strong rally.
Bird reviewed that during 2018, 2021, and 2024, three major upward movements of XRP occurred after Bitcoin market share weakened significantly. In 2018, this trend directly pushed XRP to a new all-time high; similarly, in 2021, after Bitcoin market share retreated from its high, XRP also experienced a parabolic rise.
Entering 2024, Bitcoin market share briefly broke below the long-term trendline, prompting XRP to rapidly surge. However, due to Bitcoin’s subsequent rebound, this rally was short-lived. Nevertheless, even this “unconfirmed” pullback was enough to push XRP to refresh its stage high.
From a longer cycle perspective, between 2023 and 2025, Bitcoin market share continued to rise, and after recently breaking below the upward trendline, it experienced a rebound. Bird believes that the current position closely overlaps with the area before XRP’s main upward wave in history, and the structural strength of this cycle is significantly higher than previous ones.
He further pointed out that if Bitcoin market share breaks below the trendline and confirms a downtrend, the target zone could drop to 40%–44%. Once this scenario materializes, XRP is not only expected to strengthen but may also enter a true price discovery phase, with potential for a breakout into double digits.
From the market perspective, XRP’s current price mainly operates within the $2.12 to $2.14 range, a clear pullback from the December 2025 high of about $3.20, but it still remains above key support levels. Technical indicators show the market is in a consolidation phase, with the 14-week RSI around 44–45, indicating neutral momentum; MACD is in the negative zone but the histogram is flattening, suggesting downward pressure is weakening.
On-chain data from Cryptoquant shows that since mid-December, whale inflows into major liquidity channels like Gate have significantly decreased. Currently, whales account for about 60.3% of total XRP inflows, while retail investors make up 39.7%. As large holder activity declines, no significant retail accumulation has occurred, indicating that short-term selling pressure is naturally easing.
Overall, XRP is entering a re-accumulation phase after a rapid rally and correction. The market direction still depends on further confirmation of Bitcoin market share, but historical signals suggest XRP may be near a critical turning point.
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