Is the four-year cycle of Bitcoin still valid? January 2026 could become a critical turning point

Recently, the Bitcoin market trend has once again sparked cyclical discussions. As the price shows a clear pullback in November 2025, the market has observed that the current structure is highly similar to previous cycles, making the question “Does the four-year cycle still hold?” one of the most core debates within the Bitcoin ecosystem.

The so-called Bitcoin four-year cycle is usually closely related to the halving mechanism. Historical data shows that within a period after each halving, Bitcoin’s price often enters a rapid upward phase, followed by a peak at a high level and a deep correction, with roughly four years between one high and the next. Halving reduces the rate of new Bitcoin issuance, continuously affecting the supply and demand structure.

Skeptics argue that this pattern may not continue until 2026. On one hand, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has already absorbed about $57 billion in funds, with significant institutional participation; on the other hand, companies like MSTR have formed structural buy orders, while early holders continue to cash out at high levels above $100,000. Additionally, traditional cycle projections suggest a parabolic top in 2025, but the actual market trend has been more inclined toward oscillation and correction.

However, supporters of the four-year cycle also exist. From a timing perspective, after Bitcoin’s halving in April 2024, it reached a high of $126,000 around October 2025, approximately 18 months later; the previous cycle’s low occurred during the FTX event in November 2022, with a price of about $15,500. This rhythm from low to high is highly consistent with historical cycles.

More intriguingly, there is a phenomenon of date coincidence. On November 21, 2025, Bitcoin recorded a local low of $80,524; the previous cycle’s low also occurred on November 21, 2022, with a price of $15,460, exactly the same date.

Additionally, January has repeatedly become a key point in recent cycles. In January 2023, Bitcoin formed a plateau near $25,000; in January 2024, after the launch of the US spot Bitcoin ETF, the price touched the year’s lows; in January 2025, under the background of Trump’s inauguration, Bitcoin once approached $110,000.

Currently, market focus has shifted to January 2026. With a relevant US cryptocurrency market structure bill scheduled for review on January 15, many investors are paying attention to whether this date will once again become a critical turning point in Bitcoin’s cycle, determining the final direction of this round of market movement.