BlockBeats News, January 6 — Research institutions have pointed out that the structural cooling trend in the US labor market is deepening, with unemployment rate, resignation rate, and wage growth all weakening simultaneously, indicating a slowdown in demand rather than short-term fluctuations. This means that even if the economy does not enter a recession, the Federal Reserve may be forced to adopt a more aggressive rate cut path than the market currently prices in over the next one to two years to avoid policy “over-tightening.” On a macro level, if the real interest rate declines faster than expected, the US dollar will almost inevitably face medium-term pressure, as funds will seek assets that hedge against inflation and currency credit risk. Gold thus regains structural support, and this logic is gradually spilling over into the crypto market. Bitunix analyst viewpoint: Amid the dual macro background of slowing employment and weak PMI data, the market has begun to preemptively price in loose risk premiums. The bullish structure of gold is reinforced by expectations of falling interest rates, while the attractiveness of crypto assets is being re-priced. If PMI falls below expectations, it will strengthen short-term safe-haven and easing bets, potentially triggering rapid gains in gold and increased volatility in the crypto market. In the medium term, this will reinforce the narrative of easing, benefiting risk asset valuation recovery, but caution is needed regarding repeated trading of funds in dollar liquidity and volatile assets.
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