ZEC is expected to rise by 38%? Zcash's technical pattern is bullish, but market sentiment is cooling down

Zcash (ZEC) has recently shown a sustained upward trend, remaining within a clear bullish trajectory. From a technical perspective, ZEC is oscillating within an ascending wedge pattern, which is often viewed by traders as a potential breakout signal, bringing topics like “Zcash price forecast” and “Will ZEC break out soon” back into market focus.

However, compared to the relatively optimistic chart pattern, market sentiment has noticeably cooled down. At the end of 2025, investor sentiment for Zcash briefly rebounded, and the price maintained high levels, once reinforcing market expectations of a recovery. But in the new phase, this optimism did not persist, and overall sentiment indicators shifted back to a bearish bias. Declining confidence led some investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach during the rally, limiting new buying interest and weakening short-term momentum.

It is worth noting that on-chain data has somewhat offset the pressure from declining sentiment. Over the past week, the ZEC holdings of the top 100 Zcash holders increased by approximately 6%, indicating that core funds remain confident in ZEC’s medium-term prospects. Large holders continue to accumulate, often absorbing retail selling pressure, providing a buffer for the price, and helping the market maintain structural stability amid uncertainty.

From a price perspective, ZEC is currently consolidating within an upward channel, hovering around $500, with buying and selling forces relatively balanced. If volume increases and the ascending wedge pattern is broken upward, there is theoretically about a 38% upside potential, with the target area possibly exceeding $800. However, this depends on a significant improvement in market sentiment and successfully turning $600 into an effective support level.

Conversely, if sentiment continues to weaken and buying support remains insufficient, the upward structure could be broken, and Zcash’s price may fall back to around $442, invalidating the current bullish pattern. Overall, ZEC is at a critical juncture where technical and sentiment factors are in a tug-of-war. The direction of a breakout or a pullback will still depend on clearer catalysts emerging.