Bitcoin through the Golden Lens: A Different Story of 2025

The 2025 outlook for Bitcoin is often depicted through the USD chart, a familiar framework reflecting a volatile Q4, when BTC swung wildly over a tumultuous two-month period.

Bitcoin’s price once surged to around $124,700 by the end of October, before plunging back to the mid-$80,000 range in November, wiping out over $40,000 in just a short burst of volatility. This intense fluctuation caused traders to spend considerable time debating whether the market structure remained intact, even as the market attempted to recover from this shock.

However, if we remove the USD framework and measure the same period in ounces of gold, the picture changes entirely. Data shows an 11-month downward trend, causing the BTC/XAU ratio to decline approximately 45% from the weekly high on January 12, a structure still intact despite slight price increases in early December.

Chart showing Bitcoin price converted to gold (BTCXAU) from January 1 to December 12, 2025 (Source: TradingView)## Bear “hiding” on the USD chart

Looking at weekly closing prices, Bitcoin has only decreased about 10% from the start of the year in USD terms. But this figure conceals the reality that from the peak to now, BTC has undergone one of the most volatile periods of the year: rapidly rising to $125,000, then crashing to the mid-$80,000s within a few weeks.

Even when prices stabilized in mid-December—from $89,348 on December 5 to over $92,300 on December 12—the picture with gold was entirely different: a decline more than four times greater, lasting nearly a year without significant recovery.

The gap between USD volatility and sustained weakness in gold opens a broader discussion about the “real yield” for investors viewing Bitcoin as a hard asset. Part of this decline is due to gold’s rising price amid declining real interest rate expectations and geopolitical uncertainties boosting safe-haven demand.

Nevertheless, a continuous 46-week decline remains a significant signal of how capital flows assess the risks of hard assets throughout 2025. Even a slight 2–3% increase in the ratio last week did not alter the prolonged downward structure since the beginning of the year.

USD-based volatility in autumn only emphasizes this: Bitcoin recovered from November lows and gained a few thousand USD during the week but has yet to reverse its underperformance compared to gold.

Why Cross-Asset Comparison Matters

Comparing Bitcoin to gold rather than USD or any other fiat currency helps eliminate distortions caused by monetary conditions and policy cycles. It raises a simple question: how many ounces of gold is the market willing to exchange for one Bitcoin? The answer week after week has been “less than before,” and this consistency is more important than any USD fluctuations.

Interestingly, the two charts clearly reveal two intrinsic natures of Bitcoin:

• The USD chart reflects a liquidity-sensitive aspect, influenced by USD flows, ETFs, and risk sentiment. The autumn fluctuations are evidence: rapid gains driven by leverage, abrupt reversals, and fragile recovery efforts.
• The XAU chart reflects Bitcoin’s nature as a hard asset, its ability to maintain a neutral price, and its long-term reserve potential. On this axis, Bitcoin nearly declined continuously throughout the year, with the October rally insignificant and the November drop just extending the trend from the beginning of the year.

Institutional investors often view this cross-asset perspective. They are not only concerned with whether Bitcoin recovers from a sell-off but also evaluate it relative to a basket of reserve, hedge, and real assets within their portfolios.

Bitcoin and the Challenges of 2026

To escape the “hidden” bear market measured in ounces of gold, the BTC/XAU ratio must break the 11-month pattern and create higher weekly peaks—a scenario that has not occurred since January. Achieving this requires a combination of Bitcoin strength and gold stability, typically seen when liquidity surges and safe-haven demand wanes.

If gold continues to rise or remains steady while Bitcoin trades within the fallout of autumn volatility, the BTC/XAU ratio could decline further, widening the gap between USD traders and cross-asset allocators.

Overall, the USD chart narrates a story of autumn drama and recovery, while the gold chart underscores the enduring fundamentals of trust over the entire year. As 2026 approaches, the second chart becomes a straightforward measure of what Bitcoin needs to prove: strength not just relative to cyclical fiat currencies but also against the core store of value for institutional investment.

Until this challenge is met, the ounce-based perspective will always remind the market that volatility and long-term trends are different issues, and true cycle signals are written in gold.

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