XRP News Today: 16 Days of $10 Billion, ETF Hedges Fed Hawkishness

The XRP spot ETF market has seen inflows for 16 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative net inflow of $9.35 billion, approaching the $10 billion mark. In contrast, BTC spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of $60.4 million during the same period, with a cumulative outflow of $17.9 billion since November 14. Technically, XRP has a short-term target of $2.35 and a medium-term target of $2.5 to $3.

How ETF Inflows Hedge Fed Policy Risks

! XRP ETF Flow

(Source: SoSoValue)

The Fed’s interest rate decision on December 10 became the focus of the market, with the market expecting a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the third consecutive rate cut. However, the key is not whether to cut interest rates, but the FOMC’s dot plot forecast for the interest rate path in 2026. If the Fed adopts a hawkish rate cut, i.e., a 25 basis point cut but hints at a pause in easing in 2026, risk assets will usually be under pressure.

What makes XRP news today unique is that the continued inflows of XRP spot ETFs are functioning as a “hedge.” When the Fed’s policy uncertainty rises, institutional investors continue to buy XRP through ETF channels, and this structural demand can offset the risk of short-term macro volatility. The inflows for 16 consecutive trading days suggest that this is not a short-term speculative behavior but an institutional-grade strategic allocation.

Crypto journalist Paul Barren commented on the strong market demand for XRP spot ETFs: “XRP’s ETF has reached $10M in assets under management in less than 4 weeks, which is the fastest growth rate since ETH.” He emphasized that the barrier today is no longer education, but access. Cryptocurrencies can be held in existing brokerage accounts alongside index funds, and millions of Americans can now participate without having to learn the new system.

What’s more, Vanguard’s policy shift on cryptocurrency issues allows brokerage clients to invest in crypto spot ETFs. This shift is symbolic, as Vanguard Group, once one of the most conservative asset managers, has seen a shift in attitude that signifies a new level of acceptance of cryptocurrencies in mainstream finance.

$10M Milestone Signals Depegging from BTC

The U.S. XRP spot ETF market outperformed the U.S. BTC spot ETF market, which reported a net outflow of $60.4 million. Trends in money flows suggest a potential decoupling between XRP and BTC. Since the first day of the Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) listing on November 14, the US BTC spot ETF market has reported a net outflow of $17.9M, contrasting with the demand for XRP spot ETFs.

This decoupling phenomenon is highly strategic in XRP news today. Traditionally, altcoins have been highly correlated with Bitcoin, and when Bitcoin falls, altcoins usually fall even more. But XRP has established a separate source of demand through the ETF channel, allowing it to remain relatively strong when Bitcoin is under pressure. This independence stems from XRP’s unique narrative: factors such as Ripple’s lawsuit victory, cross-border payment applications, and banking license applications are not available in Bitcoin.

Crucially, the U.S. XRP spot ETF market consists of 4 ETFs, while the BTC spot and ETH spot ETF markets have 11 and 9 ETFs, respectively, and there is no BlackRock iShares XRP Trust. This means that XRP ETFs attract comparable inflows with fewer products, with single-tasset ETFs having a stronger average ability to attract money. If BlackRock launches an XRP ETF in the future, the rate of capital inflows may further accelerate.

In addition, the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund was listed and traded on the New York Stock Exchange Arca Exchange on December 9, and the fund contains cryptocurrencies such as BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA, LINK, LTC, SUI, AVA, and DOT. This will create a passive allocation demand for XRP, as investors who buy the index fund automatically allocate a percentage of XRP.

$2.35 to $3 Target Path and Risk Factors

! XRP Daily Chart

(Source: Trading View)

Technically, XRP rose by 1.64% on December 9 to close at $2.1073. The token underperformed the overall crypto market’s 2.44% gain. Despite rising for three consecutive days, XRP remains below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating a bearish bias. However, fundamentals are reversing technical trends, supporting the bullish outlook.

Holding the psychological support at $2.0 will allow the bulls to launch an attack on the 50-day EMA at $2.2620. If it can sustainably break above the 50-day EMA, it is expected to further test the $2.35 resistance level. A break above the 50-day EMA signals a reversal of the uptrend in the short term, which will propel the price to the 200-day EMAs of $2.4710 and $2.5 in the medium term (4 to 8 weeks). The long-term (8 to 12 weeks) target price is $3.0.

Three Bullish Catalysts and Five Downside Risks

Bullish Catalyst

· Ripple Receives U.S. Chartered Banking License: Elevates XRP to Bank-Grade Reserve Asset Status

· Market Structure Act passed: Senators’ bipartisan discussions show strong legislative momentum

· MSCI Inclusion of DAT Companies: If a digital asset reserve company is included in the index, it will bring the need for passive allocation

Downside Risk

· The Fed keeps interest rates unchanged (very unlikely)

· The Bank of Japan hinted at further interest rate hikes in 2026, triggering the unwinding of yen carry trades

· MSCI excludes DAT companies from the index

· U.S. Senate opposes the Market Structure Act

· The OCC rejected Ripple’s application for a banking license

These scenarios could push XRP below $2.0, making the November low of $1.82 possible again. However, strong demand for XRP spot ETFs, hopes for crypto-friendly legislation, a growing investor base, and a rate cut by the Federal Reserve could all support the XRP price towards $3 in the long term.