Strong Fundamentals! Pendle TVL Surpasses $8.7 Billion, Setting a Record and Gaining Inclusion in Bloomberg Index

Currently, the native token PENDLE of the DeFi yield derivative protocol Pendle is at a critical technical juncture. Its price is around $2.7, and in the short term it has climbed above the 20-day moving average with a single-day gain of 10.75%, showing buying strength. However, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages above act as strong resistance, technical indicators are showing severe divergence, and market sentiment is stuck in a “tug-of-war” between bulls and bears. Meanwhile, the Pendle protocol’s fundamentals are exceptionally strong: in Q3, total value locked soared to $8.75 billion, monthly trading volume hit a new all-time high of $11 billion, and it was successfully included in the Bloomberg Galaxy DeFi Index. This stark contrast between hesitant technicals and robust fundamentals means the market is waiting for the next clear driving signal.

Technical Tug-of-War: Contradictory Signals in the Eyes of Experts

From a pure chart analysis perspective, PENDLE is currently in a classic “uncertain direction” phase. Its price has successfully broken above the 20-day moving average at $2.4417, which is a positive short-term signal indicating that buyers have gained some advantage recently. However, the 50-day moving average at $2.8283 and the 200-day moving average at $4.0339 above act as heavy ceilings, clearly depicting a downward trend in the medium and long term. This positional structure itself sends a contradictory message: short-term momentum is up, but the medium- and long-term trend is down.

This contradiction is fully reflected in the technical indicators. Anton Kharitonov, an expert at Traders Union, points out that despite the intraday strength, key indicators such as MACD and ADX still point to sustained selling pressure and a bearish trend. He believes that in the absence of positive news catalysts, risks remain skewed to the downside, and any strong rebound could quickly meet selling pressure. Another expert at the same institution, Viktoras Karapetjanc, holds the opposite view, seeing the price stabilizing above the Ichimoku baseline as evidence of a well-structured bullish setup, and argues that if the key resistance at $2.8283 is broken, it will open up room for an upward reversal.

Market strategist Jainam Mehta’s observation may be the most balanced. He points out that mixed momentum readings and rising intraday volatility are typical signs of tactical uncertainty. This narrow range consolidation pattern often signals two possibilities: either the market continues to move sideways, exchanging time for space, or there is a sudden breakout up or down triggered by some catalyst. For traders, the current market environment is more suited to staying alert and waiting for a confirmed breakout of key support or resistance levels, rather than blindly betting on a direction.

Fundamentals Surge: Why Are TVL and Trading Volume Hitting New Highs?

In stark contrast to the technical hesitation is the strong performance of Pendle’s fundamentals. According to its latest Q3 2025 report, a series of data points to explosive growth in both product and market demand. The core metric of total value locked grew 118.8% quarter-over-quarter to a historic high of $8.75 billion, with stablecoins accounting for over 80%, providing an extremely solid liquidity base for the protocol.

At the same time, protocol trading activity reached unprecedented levels. Q3 nominal trading volume exceeded $23.39 billion, more than doubling quarter-over-quarter, with September’s single-month trading volume setting a record at $11 billion. This not only brought in substantial protocol revenue (Q3 reached $9.14 million), but also provided vePENDLE holders with an average annualized return of 35% to 40%. The user base has also been steadily expanding, with monthly active users rising to 29,200, and the protocol successfully deployed on 8 different blockchains, demonstrating strong cross-chain expansion capability.

Behind these figures is the broad market validation of Pendle’s unique “yield tokenization” business model. By stripping and tokenizing future yields of yield-bearing assets (such as Lido’s stETH, Ethena’s USDe), it creates a new financial market for liquidity providers, yield seekers, and hedgers. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes specifically pointed out in his article that allowing retail investors to speculate on interest rates in new ways through derivatives (like those Pendle is building) is an excellent entrepreneurial direction, which undoubtedly adds industry heavyweight endorsement to the project’s prospects.

Pendle Current Key Data and Metrics Overview

Technical Data:

• Current Price: $2.669
• Key Moving Averages: Above MA-20 ($2.4417), suppressed by MA-50 ($2.8283) & MA-200 ($4.0339).
• Intraday Performance: Up 10.75% in a single day, with high volatility.
• Key Indicators: MACD bearish, ADX bearish, RSI neutral to slightly oversold (45), Awesome Oscillator bullish, with significant indicator conflicts.

Fundamental & On-Chain Data:

• Total Value Locked: $8.75 billion (Q3 data).
• Quarterly Trading Volume: $23.39 billion (Q3 data).
• Monthly Peak: September trading volume hit $11 billion; October protocol revenue reached $4.5 million—both all-time highs.
• User Base: 29,200 monthly active users.
• Industry Recognition: Included in the Bloomberg Galaxy DeFi Index on December 1.

Understanding Pendle: What Problem Is It Solving?

To understand the value of the PENDLE token, you must first understand the core industry pain point Pendle addresses. In traditional finance, investors can strip coupons by buying zero-coupon bonds or manage future interest rate risk and speculate on yields through interest rate futures, etc. However, in DeFi, yields from yield-bearing assets (such as staked ETH, liquidity mining LP tokens) are bundled with the principal, making flexible trading and hedging difficult.

Pendle Finance emerged to fill this gap. Through its standardized yield token protocol, it splits any yield-bearing asset into two parts: a “principal token” representing the asset itself, and a “yield token” representing rights to future yield. This allows users to trade expectations of future yield just like ordinary tokens. Those bearish on future yields can sell yield tokens to immediately lock in high current returns; those bullish can buy yield tokens to bet on higher future returns.

The PENDLE token is the governance and incentive core of this ecosystem. Holders can stake it as vePENDLE to gain governance voting rights and boost their share of protocol revenue. This mechanism closely aligns protocol growth with token holders’ interests. As trading volume and protocol revenue surge, the actual returns to vePENDLE holders also rise, creating a powerful value capture loop. This explains why, even in a bear market, many users still participate in its ecosystem.

Outlook: The Tug-of-War Between Short-Term Trading and Long-Term Narrative

Looking ahead at Pendle and the PENDLE token, the market is essentially witnessing a battle between “short-term trading” and “long-term narrative.” In the short term, the token price is indeed constrained by the technical bear market structure, lacking strong news catalysts to break the deadlock. Overall crypto market sentiment, dynamics of competing protocols, and the macroeconomic environment could all be external variables impacting short-term price fluctuations.

However, on a longer time scale, the “DeFi interest rate derivatives” sector that Pendle is betting on holds huge potential. As more real-world assets and traditional financial institutions explore on-chain solutions, the demand for interest rate risk management and yield optimization tools will only grow stronger. Pendle’s first-mover advantage, proven product-market fit, and ever-expanding cross-chain ecosystem (such as planned expansion to Solana) have built solid competitive barriers. Endorsements from industry leaders like Arthur Hayes and recognition from mainstream financial indices like the Bloomberg Index continue to reinforce its long-term narrative.

For investors, the current contradictory situation may signal a phase requiring patience and careful timing. Chasing highs or panic selling makes little sense, but ignoring strong fundamental growth is equally unwise. A more rational strategy might be to closely watch whether the price can effectively break through the MA-50 resistance at $2.8283, which would be a key short-term bullish signal; at the same time, continually track protocol TVL, trading volume, and cross-chain progress to assess the sustainability of its long-term value growth.

Yield Tokenization 101 & Guide to Participating in the Pendle Ecosystem

Yield Tokenization: A Simple Analogy

Imagine you have an apple tree that bears fruit every year. The Pendle protocol allows you to split ownership of this tree into two parts: one part, the “root certificate” (principal token), represents ownership of the tree itself; the other part, the “apple coupon” (yield token), represents the right to all apples harvested over the next ten years. You can choose to keep the “root certificate” (waiting for land appreciation) and sell the “apple coupon” to get cash upfront, effectively locking in ten years of apple yield. The buyer of the “apple coupon” is betting that future apple prices will be higher than what was assumed when you sold the coupon. What Pendle does is provide a free market for trading both the “root certificate” and “apple coupon.”

How Can Ordinary Users Participate in the Pendle Ecosystem?

As a Liquidity Provider: Deposit assets (such as stETH, USDe) into Pendle’s pools to provide trading liquidity and earn trading fees and PENDLE token incentives.

As a Yield Trader:

1. Bearish on Future Yield: Buy yield-bearing assets (such as PT-stETH) to immediately receive their tokenized future yield, equivalent to buying assets at a discount.
2. Bullish on Future Yield: Buy yield tokens (such as YT-stETH). If the actual future yield of the asset exceeds current market expectations, your YT will appreciate.

As a Token Holder: Buy and stake PENDLE as vePENDLE to participate in protocol governance and share in protocol fee revenue, obtaining stable and considerable cash flow returns (currently 35%-40% APR).

Risk Warning: Yield tokens have time decay and become worthless at maturity; market volatility and smart contract security are always risks to monitor.

Pendle’s current situation is like an explorer holding a map in the fog. The map (fundamental data) clearly marks a rich “interest rate derivatives” new world ahead, but the path underfoot (technical performance) is muddy and directionless. This sense of division is a microcosm of today’s crypto market: there is a worrying time lag between cutting-edge innovation and outdated market structure. Ultimately, price always converges to value, but whether that path is a steep straight line or a winding spiral, no one knows. For observers, Pendle’s story offers an excellent case study to consider: in an on-chain world of extreme information transparency and real-time data, do chart indicators representing collective sentiment hold more sway, or do on-chain metrics representing real usage and cash flow determine the outcome? Perhaps the answer lies in the result of its next test of the $2.8283 resistance line.