SUI Price Prediction: 20% Surge in a Single Day, New York Residents Allowed to Purchase Ignites "Compliance Rally"

After obtaining key regulatory approval from New York State, Layer 1 blockchain Sui (SUI) saw its token price surge 20% in the past 24 hours, reaching as high as $1.60 and becoming one of the market’s standout assets of the day. The direct catalyst for this rally was Coinbase, the largest US cryptocurrency exchange, receiving approval to offer SUI trading to New York residents—an important compliance breakthrough for the project in a highly regulated market. However, on-chain data reveals that Sui’s network stablecoin balance has been cut in half from a $1.2 billion peak to $700 million, and its total value locked (TVL) has also shrunk significantly, exposing concerns about capital outflows from the ecosystem. Market analysts believe this rally may be a classic “bear trap,” with the price facing the risk of falling back toward $1 after rebounding to test resistance at $1.8.

Compliance Boost Ignites Rally, New York as Key Catalyst

At the start of the week, the crypto market was still immersed in a broad downturn triggered by the Bank of Japan’s potential early rate cut. However, Tuesday saw a swift “V-shaped” reversal, with most crypto assets rebounding in price. Sui (SUI) stood out in particular, with a 20% gain far outpacing the market average. This sudden surge was not driven by macroeconomic shifts but by a specific, critical industry development: Coinbase officially received approval from New York State regulators to offer SUI trading services to residents of the state.

For investors unfamiliar with the US regulatory landscape, the significance of this event may be underestimated. New York State is home to Wall Street, the world’s financial center, and is known for its stringent and complex financial services regulation, including an independent “BitLicense” regime. Any crypto project wanting to enter this market must pass multiple layers of scrutiny. Therefore, gaining approval from New York is far more than just adding users from one more state; it’s a strong compliance signal, indicating the project has met one of the strictest US jurisdictions’ requirements in terms of asset classification, anti-money laundering, and investor protection. This paves the way for attracting more regulated institutional funds and local enterprise users, with the expectation of increased buying interest directly fueling market enthusiasm.

Driven by this news, the SUI price rebounded strongly from the key $1.30 support level. The intense volatility also liquidated a large number of short positions, with data showing as much as $350 million in shorts forcibly closed during the swings—an unusually high figure that put SUI in the top ten for liquidations that day. Analysts note that this rally coincided with renewed market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December (with the probability rising from 40% at the end of October to 90%), creating a resonance of sentiment and capital inflows.

Concerns Behind the Boom: On-Chain Data Reveals Capital Outflow

Despite the strong price action, a sober look at Sui’s on-chain data reveals a different story: the ecosystem is under clear pressure from capital outflows. The latest on-chain analysis shows that the total stablecoin balance stored on the Sui network has dropped sharply—from a recent high of roughly $1.2 billion down to $700 million at the time of writing, a decrease of over 40%. The stablecoin balance is a key indicator of a public chain’s active capital and user retention; its decline usually means users are moving funds out of the network.

At the same time, another key metric—total value locked (TVL)—also flashed warning signs. Measured in SUI, network TVL has fallen by 15%. This dual data (stablecoin outflow and TVL decline) shows that a significant amount of capital is indeed leaving the Sui ecosystem. Even when converted to USD, Sui’s current TVL of about $1 billion still lags far behind competitors like BNB Chain and Solana. This seems inconsistent with the appeal that its allegedly more efficient Move language architecture should bring.

Key recent on-chain data for the SUI network

Total stablecoin balance: Down from $1.2 billion peak to $700 million (over 40% drop)

TVL in SUI terms: Down 15%

TVL in USD terms: About $1 billion

24h liquidations (shorts): About $350 million

Current price (after rebound): About $1.60

This divergence between “rising price, fleeing capital” is worth pondering. It may indicate that the current SUI rally is mainly driven by short-term speculative capital reacting to external events (New York listing), rather than long-term capital entering based on genuine ecosystem development. Speculators chase news-driven gains, while “insider” capital more familiar with the ecosystem may be using the rebound to exit. Such divergences often signal unhealthy market trends and cast doubt on the sustainability of the rally.

Technical Analysis: $1.8 as the Bull/Bear Line—Beware the “Bear Trap”

From a pure technical analysis perspective, SUI’s current rebound path and potential targets are relatively clear. After precisely touching the key $1.30 support area, the price staged a textbook rebound. The market’s focus has now shifted to the next major resistance zone. The next target to challenge is around $1.78—a level that was previously a support platform and now forms a “resistance confluence zone” with the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), making it highly significant.

(Source: TradingView)

Analysts generally believe the $1.8 area will be the dividing line for SUI’s medium-term trend. If buying power persists and the price can break through and hold above $1.8—especially if it can push further to the $2.0 mark—the current bearish technical structure will be broken, suggesting SUI may end its correction early and start a more sustained recovery. However, the more likely scenario is that the price will encounter strong selling pressure near $1.8, forming a daily chart pattern of “rally and fade.”

Once this “rejection at resistance” is confirmed, bears will regain control. At that point, the price is likely to resume its downward trend, with the first key target being the psychological $1.0 level. For traders, chasing the rally in the current area carries high risk; a safer strategy may be to wait for the market’s reaction after testing the key resistance before deciding on a direction. This compliance-driven surge may ultimately prove to be a cleverly constructed “bear trap”—luring bottom-fishers in before reversing downward again.

Project Focus: Sui Network’s Rise and Ecosystem Challenges

For many investors, Sui may still be a relatively unfamiliar name. It is a Layer 1 blockchain founded by a team of former Meta (Facebook) engineers, with its main feature being the use of the Move programming language and an “object-centric” data model designed for high throughput and low latency. Since its mainnet launch in 2023, Sui has attracted attention among emerging blockchains for its rapidly growing transaction count and claimed “instant settlement” capability.

However, competition among Layer 1 chains is fierce, especially in the current environment of tight market liquidity. While Sui’s ecosystem includes some notable DeFi and GameFi projects, it has yet to incubate a “killer app” with network-wide influence. Its TVL ranking has never entered the top ten, and compared to its “sibling chain” Aptos (which also uses the Move language), the contest is mixed with no clear dominance. The recent New York compliance listing is undoubtedly a key step in boosting its profile and user base, but whether it can turn this “compliance advantage” into an “ecosystem advantage” that retains users and capital is fundamental to its long-term value. The current data showing on-chain capital outflows is a concrete reflection of this challenge.