We are now in the final moments! The FED will announce its Interest decision, here are the expert's expectations and the date prediction for the first Interest rate cut!

After the latest employment data exceeded expectations, investors began to pull back their expectations for interest rate cuts.

LPL Financial Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach stated in an assessment on Yahoo Finance’s Morning Brief program that this week’s meeting will likely be “boring.” Roach noted that FED officials will prepare the markets for the first interest rate cut expectation in June with their domestic and international speeches during this process.

Roach stated that he expects three interest rate rebates during the year, which could occur in the form of quarter-point rebates in June, October, and December. He particularly pointed out that positive signals are emerging in the non-housing service inflation, referred to as “super core.”

Roach, who also commented on employment data, stated that the recently announced figures do not fully reflect reality and that some temporary hires have made the data appear stronger than it is, for example in the storage sector. He also pointed out that the continued presence of federal employees on the payroll due to reasons such as severance pay or early retirement could mislead the data.

However, Roach, who stated that the permanent labor demand in the healthcare sector provides stability to the labor market, noted that the overall trend has been a slowing but still positive employment growth in the last one and a half years. He added that as long as the average employment growth remains above the 125,000 level, a message of stability will continue to be conveyed to the markets.

Roach stated that due to the challenges the business world faces in finding qualified labor, there is a tendency to retain existing employees, and this situation could limit layoffs. However, he also pointed out that salary increases might slow down.

Roach pointed out that there has been a rapid increase in the number of people who have been unemployed for a long time, stating that this rate has reached pre-pandemic levels but does not yet show signs of recession. Therefore, he expressed that the markets reacted positively to the employment data released last Friday.

According to Roach’s assessments, the FED will not make any changes to interest rates this week; however, it will start laying the groundwork for a possible rebate in June.