กลยุทธ์ MicroStrategy "ซื้อเหรียญไม่จำกัด" จบลงแล้ว! ข้อกำหนดการระงับผลกระทบของโมเมนตัม MSCI

MSCI retained MicroStrategy but froze share count, severing the link between new issuance and passive purchases, ending the flywheel effect. Bull Theory quantitative analysis shows every 20 million shares newly issued loses $600 million in passive buying. MicroStrategy’s 2025 issuance exceeded $15 billion in new shares; under new rules, dilution effects lack support, increasing price pullback risk.

The Hidden Lethal Clause in MSCI’s Freeze

The threat of large-scale forced selling of crypto-related stocks has been averted. However, this reprieve comes with a structural flaw that fundamentally alters the economics of “Bitcoin Treasury” trading. MSCI stated: “Currently, those companies listed in the MSCI published preliminary list whose digital asset holdings represent 50% or more of total assets will maintain their current treatment in the index.”

Following the announcement, MicroStrategy executive chairman Michael Saylor praised the company’s success in remaining in the benchmark index, with shares surging over 6%. However, the market quickly discovered the lethal clause hidden in the fine print. MSCI simultaneously imposed a technical freeze on the share count of these entities: “MSCI will not increase the Number of Shares (NOS), Foreign Inclusion Factor (FIF), or Domestic Inclusion Factor (DIF) of these securities. MSCI will postpone any new additions or size-based adjustments for all securities in the preliminary list.”

Through this decision, MSCI effectively severed the link between new issuance and automatic passive purchases. This move only means the “downside risk” of forced liquidation has been eliminated, but the “upside risk” mechanism of index trading has been dismantled. Markets reacted immediately, with JPMorgan previously stating that complete exclusion could trigger $3 billion to $9 billion in passive selling of MSTR. Such large transaction volumes would likely crash the stock price and force MicroStrategy to liquidate Bitcoin. This worst-case scenario was indeed avoided, but at the cost of losing the more important growth engine.

How the Flywheel Effect Was Completely Destroyed

(Source: MicroStrategy)

Historically, when MicroStrategy issued new shares to fund Bitcoin acquisitions, index providers would eventually update share counts. Accordingly, passive funds tracking the index were mathematically forced to proportionally purchase newly issued shares to minimize tracking error. This created a guaranteed, price-insensitive source of demand that helped absorb dilution effects. This was MicroStrategy’s “flywheel effect”: issue new shares → index updates weights → passive funds forced to buy → stock price supported → MicroStrategy continues issuing → cycle repeats.

Under the new “freeze” policy, this cycle is broken. Even if MicroStrategy significantly expands the outstanding share count to raise capital, MSCI will effectively ignore these new shares in index calculations. The company’s weight in the index will not increase, therefore, ETFs and index funds will not be forced to purchase new shares. Market analysts note that this shift forces markets back to fundamentals. Lacking support from benchmark index tracking demand, MicroStrategy and its peers must now rely on active fund managers, hedge funds, and retail investors to digest new supply.

Cryptocurrency research firm Bull Theory quantified this liquidity gap in a report to clients. The firm modeled a treasury company with 200 million shares outstanding, of which approximately 10% are typically held by passive index-tracking funds. In Bull Theory’s model, if a company issues 20 million new shares to raise capital, the old index mechanism would ultimately force passive funds to purchase 2 million of them.

Quantitative Analysis of the Liquidity Gap

Passive buying under old mechanism: Per 20 million shares issued, passive funds forced to buy 2 million shares (10% ratio)

Assumed price per share: $300

Automatic buying scale: $600 million in price-insensitive buying pressure

Passive buying under new rules: Zero

Bull Theory notes that under MSCI’s latest freeze policy, the $600 million bid would drop to zero. “Now MicroStrategy must find private buyers, offer discounts, or reduce financing.” This means forced demand from index funds has been eliminated. Therefore, this represents a major obstacle for MicroStrategy, which in 2025 issued over $15 billion in new shares to aggressively accumulate Bitcoin.

If the company attempts to replicate such large-scale offerings in 2026, it will do so in a market environment lacking passive support. Without this structural support, the risk of price pullback during dilution events will increase significantly. Investors may sell on every new issuance announcement, anticipating price declines due to lack of passive buying. This expectation becomes self-fulfilling, creating a negative cycle.

Spot ETFs Become the Biggest Winners

MSCI’s decision to restrict these companies’ shares rather than expel them or leave them alone also significantly altered the competitive landscape in the asset management industry. Over the past year, US spot Bitcoin ETFs as an asset class have matured increasingly and attracted strong institutional interest. From this perspective, MicroStrategy competes with these fee-collecting Bitcoin ETFs, offering investors a way to gain passive Bitcoin exposure through a corporate structure.

The new rules froze digital asset companies’ index weights, weakening their ability to expand effectively through stock markets. If MicroStrategy’s ability to raise cheap capital is constrained, large asset allocators may redirect funds from corporate shares to spot ETFs, as spot ETFs do not carry the company’s operational risks or premium volatility relative to net asset value. This capital flow would directly benefit spot ETF issuers, including major Wall Street banks, effectively capturing the fees previously reflected in the stock premium.

By undermining MicroStrategy’s “flywheel” effect, index providers may have inadvertently or intentionally created a more favorable competitive environment for traditional asset management products. This is a zero-sum game: the passive buying MicroStrategy loses is exactly the incremental capital spot ETFs gain. For ETF issuers like BlackRock and Fidelity, this MSCI decision is a windfall.