比特幣流通量逼近「2,000 萬枚」里程碑!最後 100 萬枚還要挖 114 年

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「加密貨幣之王」比特幣正準備跨越極具象徵意義的歷史時刻:第 2,000 萬枚比特幣即將問世。根據鏈上數據平台 Clark Moody Dashboard 統計,目前已被挖礦並在市面上流通的比特幣已達 19,996,979 枚,距離 2,000 萬枚僅剩約 3,000 枚,按照區塊產出速度推算,大約再過 7 天就能達陣。 屆時,比特幣總供應量 2,100 萬枚中,將有超過 95% 已經進入流通市場,而剩下的最後 100 萬枚,則預計要花上超過一個世紀的時光,才能全數挖出。

比特幣創辦人中本聰(Satoshi Nakamoto)在設計協議時,便將 2,100 萬枚供應量上限寫入原始程式碼,藉此打造一種具備「絕對稀缺性」的貨幣形式,與各國央行可以隨時增發的法定貨幣體系形成鮮明對比。 雖然中本聰從未公開說明為何選定 2,100 萬這個數字,但這道不可逾越的紅線,已成為比特幣主義者眼中不可撼動的信仰。在他們看來,任何試圖更改供應上限的提議,都是對比特幣作為「硬通貨」價值的根本背叛。 比特幣的稀缺性常被拿來與黃金、原油進行比較,不過在傳統商品市場中,若金價或油價飆升,生產商往往會透過加大開採力道或尋找新礦源來增加供給,藉此平抑價格;比特幣則不同,由於發行曲線是透明且不可篡改的,所以無論市場價格如何狂飆,供應量都無法因此加速產出。 比特幣的發行速度會隨著「減半事件」下滑,大約每隔 4 年,礦工的區塊獎勵就會減半,使新幣釋出速度趨緩。目前比特幣通膨率已降至 1% 以下,每日僅產出約 450 枚新幣。 按照這個節奏,全網 99% 的供應量將在 2035 年 1 月前完成開採,而最後一枚完整的比特幣則預計要到 2105 年才會出世,至於更細碎的剩餘產量,則會持續遞減發放直至 2140 年左右。

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