3月3日消息，资产管理公司 VanEck 首席执行官 Jan van Eck 近日表示，比特币价格可能已经接近阶段性底部，市场正在经历典型的“四年周期”末期调整，而随着周期接近尾声，BTC价格有望逐步恢复上升趋势。
在接受 CNBC 采访时，Jan van Eck指出，近期市场对比特币价格波动的解读过于复杂。实际上，比特币长期以来一直遵循较为明显的周期规律：通常连续三年上涨，然后在第四年出现明显回调，而2026年正处于这一周期中的调整阶段。
他解释称，比特币的核心逻辑仍然围绕供应机制展开。比特币总量被限制在2100万枚，每四年发生一次区块奖励减半，这一设计会周期性改变市场供需结构，也在历史上多次触发价格大幅波动。
Jan van Eck认为，当前市场环境正是周期尾声阶段。“如果按照历史规律来看，现在的市场很可能处于触底区域，”他说，并预计比特币价格将在2026年逐步进入恢复期。
数据显示，比特币在过去24小时上涨约2.6%，价格回到约68,400美元附近，近七天累计涨幅约7.6%。这一反弹也发生在全球地缘政治风险升温之际。此前，美国与以色列对伊朗发动空袭，随后伊朗进行了报复行动，中东局势紧张推动部分资金重新关注数字资产避险属性。
Jan van Eck表示，在金融不确定性加剧的情况下，加密货币可能成为跨境资金转移的重要工具。他提到，中东部分地区对数字资产政策相对友好，例如 Dubai 等金融中心正逐渐成为加密资本流动的重要节点。
尽管市场对“四年周期是否仍然有效”存在争议，一些分析师认为机构资金、宏观流动性以及监管变化可能改变传统节奏，但Jan van Eck依然认为，比特币供应结构仍然是决定长期价格趋势的关键变量，而当前阶段或许正接近本轮周期的低点区域。
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