Wintermute: Market liquidity is expected to improve in Q1 2026, with future catalysts likely coming from policy and interest rate expectations rather than internal encryption liquidity.

PANews news on November 18, Wintermute, a market maker in the crypto market, released an analysis stating that last week's fall in the crypto market was mainly driven by the repricing of the Fed's expectations for a rate cut in December, rather than any issues with the market fundamentals. Bitcoin needs to re-enter a range to improve market sentiment. Analysis points out that part of the pressure comes from the reduction of positions by large holders. Typically, sell-offs from Q4 to Q1 have a seasonal pattern, but this trend has occurred earlier this year, partly due to market expectations that the four-year cycle may indicate weaker performance in the coming year. This expectation has accelerated de-risking operations and amplified market volatility. However, this decline does not have substantial fundamental issues, primarily driven by macro factors in the United States. Despite the impact of short-term interest rate adjustments on market sentiment, there are no signs of deterioration in the global macro environment. The world remains in a loose cycle: Japan plans to launch a $110 billion stimulus package, China continues to implement loose policies, the Fed's quantitative tightening plan will end next month, and fiscal stimulus channels remain active. The market is currently more driven by macro factors, lacking new data to support interest rate expectations, which has increased market reactivity. Wintermute believes that the recent fall in Bitcoin is more of a macro-driven adjustment rather than a structural issue. Global easing policies continue, the Fed's quantitative tightening plan will end next month, and liquidity is expected to improve in the first quarter of next year, keeping the overall market environment constructive. The current market sentiment recovery needs confirmation from mainstream asset performance, and future catalysts may come from policy and interest rate expectations, rather than internal liquidity in the crypto market. Once mainstream assets rebound, the market may welcome a broader recovery.