Doomsday Tank Launch: Bear Market Warning Behind ZEC Surge

Preface

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According to real-time data from CoinMarketCap, Zcash surged from $156.21 to $533.92 between October 8 and November 7, 2025, with a 30-day increase of 241% (3.41 times), surpassing the previous high of $319 in May 2021 by 67%, achieving a technical breakthrough. However, it is worth noting that compared to the historical peak of $4293 in 2016, the current price is still down by 88%, indicating that ZEC still has a long way to go to truly return to its peak.

) In-Depth Analysis of Driving Factors

1. Prince Group Incident (Core Catalyst)

On October 14, 2025, the U.S. Department of Justice confiscated 127,271 BTC (worth $15 billion) from Chen Zhi, founder of the Cambodian Prince Group. This event demonstrated at the sovereign level the fatal flaw of Bitcoin’s transparent ledger—governments can easily track, freeze, and seize on-chain assets. High-net-worth users have a rigid demand for privacy protection, and the narrative that “Zcash is insurance against Bitcoin” received empirical support. The privacy coin sector collectively exploded: ZEC rose 217%, XMR increased 9.1%, and DASH up 12.5%.

2. Exhaustion of Crypto Narratives (Market Seeking New Hotspots)

Currently, the crypto market is in a narrative vacuum: meme coins are tired, new public chains lack innovation, and DeFi has no new stories. The market urgently needs new concepts to maintain enthusiasm and liquidity. The return of the “privacy narrative” is timely—supported by real cases like government confiscation of BTC, endorsements from influencers like Naval, and nostalgic sentiments around “old mining coins returning to value.” As a leading privacy sector player, ZEC has become a target for capital grouping and speculation. This is a typical “theme rotation”: when mainstream concepts are exhausted, funds seek out niche sectors to create new hotspots.

3. Influencers like Hayes and Others Calling for Buy-ins (Triggering FOMO)

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Silicon Valley investor Naval endorsed ZEC on October 1 (when it was $68), calling it “insurance for Bitcoin,” and its price surged to $150 within a week. BitMEX founder Hayes has recently been repeatedly calling for ZEC, igniting retail FOMO. Crypto KOL Ansem equated ZEC with BTC. Intensive endorsements from top-tier KOLs created a market atmosphere of “FOMO,” but also concealed risks of “pump and dump.”

4. Liquidity Exhaustion and Susceptibility to Manipulation (Technical Amplification)

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ZEC has long been in a “single coin” state—extremely low daily trading volume, zero attention, and price ranging between $20-50 for years. Under such extreme obscurity, small amounts of capital can cause rapid price surges. Highly concentrated chips and a shallow order book lead to uncontrolled price jumps when buy-in occurs. This is a typical “low liquidity amplification effect,” but it also means that selling can cause equally sharp declines—lacking sufficient buy support.

) Fundamental Validation and Risk Warning

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This rally is more driven by speculation than fundamental growth. The core evidence is that the usage of shielded transactions has not increased significantly. Despite the price rising nearly 10 times, the utilization rate of shielded pools has not changed; if there were a real surge in privacy demand, the proportion of shielded transactions should have spiked, but data shows almost no change.

• “Alternative Value” of Privacy Coins: Anonymous Interchange Tools

Crypto KOL CryptoMaid succinctly explained: “Since over ten years ago, the main role of these anonymous coins has been for people who want to anonymously sell Bitcoin—first converting to anonymous coins, then slowly cashing out at third- or fourth-tier exchanges. Every bull market, they draw a big gate.” This reveals the true positioning of privacy coins: as tools for anonymous BTC interchange, not as stores of value. Coupled with recent BTC declines, ZEC’s rise may be accompanied by selling pressure on BTC. Once BTC stabilizes or rebounds, the “interchange demand” for ZEC will vanish, and its price will quickly fall back. This explains why privacy coins surge in every bull market but never sustain high levels long-term—their core value lies in “transfer” rather than “holding.”

• Technical Progress Cannot Mask Adoption Difficulties

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The Orchard protocol upgrade and ECC’s Q4 2025 roadmap show that ZEC is not an air project. But the key issue: technical upgrades have not translated into growth in shielded transactions; 70% of transactions are still transparent. Leading zk-SNARKs technology does not equal market adoption. ZEC’s challenge is not technical capability but achieving genuine user growth under regulatory pressure.

) Final Conclusion

Technical Indicators Have Reached a Highly Dangerous Level: Price surged from $50 to $550, a 10x increase in 40 days, exhibiting a typical parabolic spike. Trading volume hit new highs but then shrank, creating textbook divergence between volume and price. Historically, 90% of such patterns lead to a 30-50% violent correction.

Fundamentals Do Not Support Current Valuation: On-chain data provides solid evidence: the number of shielded ZEC is 4.98 million, accounting for 30.4%, with little change before the price surge. Despite a 232% increase in price, the utilization rate of shielded pools remains flat, confirming BuyUCoin CEO’s judgment—“more driven by speculation than fundamental growth.” 70% of ZEC transactions are still transparent, fundamentally contradicting its positioning as a privacy coin.

Driving Factors Are Unsustainable: The Prince Group incident was a one-time catalyst; narrative-driven sector rotation caused by exhausted stories is inherently short-term; influencer calls carry “pump and dump” risks; liquidity exhaustion is a double-edged sword—rapid rises will be followed by sharp declines.

Regulatory Risks Are the Sword of Damocles: Privacy coins face not just “if” but “when” regulation. The US and EU are increasingly strict on privacy coins; Monero, Dash, and others have been delisted in multiple regions. If Coinbase announces delisting ZEC, the price could plummet over 70 in a single day, risking investor ruin.

Warning of the Doomsday Chariot: Privacy coins’ surges often signal the onset of bear markets

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Historical data shows that ZEC, after rising 14-fold from $50 to $703.75 in January 2018, crashed 93%. Similarly, from $57 to $386 in May 2021, it fell 92%. After these peaks, Bitcoin entered long-term bear markets: from $20K to $3K (-85%) in 2018, and from $69K to $15K (-78%) in 2021. Privacy coins are called “Doomsday Chariots” because their surges often mark the final frenzy of market funds—an indicator of systemic market downturns. When even long-dormant privacy coins are hyped, it signals that the market has exhausted all speculative potential, and funds are being pushed into the most marginal, coldest assets—typical of the “garbage time” at the end of a bull cycle.

) Conclusion

Markets often interpret a surge in a sector as “value discovery” or “sector rise,” but ZEC’s case may be the opposite—it’s a reverse indicator. True sector growth should be accompanied by user growth, application deployment, and capital inflow, but privacy coin surges show entirely different features: they occur when market funds are most scarce, representing the last struggle of speculative capital after mainstream assets are exhausted. This is akin to the late stage of the 2000 internet bubble, where even pet supply websites IPO’d wildly—not because of promising prospects, but because there was nowhere else for money to go. The structural flaws of privacy coins mean they can only “pass the parcel” among existing funds; their surges are essentially liquidity-driven rather than value revaluation, serving as symptoms of market cycle turning points rather than the start of a new cycle.