Shengbao Bank: El regreso de Trump a la Casa Blanca remodelará el mercado de bonos del Tesoro de Estados Unidos y es probable que el rendimiento del bono del Tesoro a 10 años supere el 5%.

Althea Spinozzi, Fixed Income Strategy Manager at Shengbao Bank, said that Trump’s return to the White House could “profoundly” reshape the US bond market, with the trajectory of US Treasury yields climbing as the market adjusts to higher inflation expectations. Spinozzi expects that the yield on the US 10-year benchmark bond could still break through the 5% level, but did not provide a specific timetable, pointing out that this level is acting as a “magnet” in the current economic environment. Spinozzi said that Trump’s election would also bring “ghosts” of exchange rate fluctuations. Concerns about the US fiscal situation, coupled with increased borrowing to fund tax cuts and spending, could trigger concerns about dumping US bonds, similar to the turmoil seen in the UK in 2022. The status of the US dollar as a world reserve currency, as well as the depth of the US bond market, provides a certain degree of resilience. Nevertheless, the sustained rise in US bond yields could continue to weigh on the strength of the US dollar in the long term, especially if inflation expectations spiral out of control or global investors begin seeking alternative options.