I’ve mentioned it before and heard @benjamincowen mention it recently but if $BTC is going to follow its traditional 4-year cycle, the macro backdrop matters more than most people think especially what happens with the $SPX and the broader business cycle.

Right now, SPX is sitting near cycle highs suggests we’re late in the economic expansion phase. Historically, Bitcoin’s strongest upside comes after a period of liquidity reset, not when risk assets are already overheated. That’s why it’s important for SPX to roll over into a correction phase rather than continue its parabolic run.
A correction in equities would likely signal tightening financial conditions, risk-off sentiment, and eventually force central banks to pivot back toward easing (rate cuts, liquidity injections, etc.) That shift is what typically fuels the next major leg up in crypto.
If SPX just keeps grinding higher without a correction, it delays that liquidity cycle and risks throwing off Bitcoin’s timing within the 4-year structure.
And imo that would bearish as right now we have reason to believe why #Bitcoin is performing so poorly compared to literally every other market (the 4yr cycle) and without that explanation we would have to ask ourselves that question again.
If both can get their timing right maybe $BTC and $SPX can correlate with each other, with #BTC finding a bottom in Q4 and the S&P shortly after.