I see that something interesting is happening in the market right now. Bitcoin is holding strong at $71,540 even as the whole world seems to be pulling back. You know, equities are falling, oil has surged above $100, and the USD has set its strongest weekly gain in a year. But Bitcoin? Still stable, only up 6.5% in the past week while S&P 500 futures have dropped over 2%.

Ether has risen to $2.24K, BNB is at $593, Solana is $82.26, and Dogecoin remains at $0.09. But here’s the catch – the world is highly volatile. Market strategist Ed Yardeni has raised the possibility of a US market crash by 35% because the oil shock is combining inflation pressures and job losses. That’s a big jump from his previous 20% forecast.

Now, here’s why Bitcoin isn’t fully following stocks even though both are falling. Research from NYDIG showed that only around 25% of Bitcoin price movements are explained by correlation with equities. The remaining 75%? Driven by crypto-specific factors that are completely outside traditional stock indices. So even though the global equity index dropped 3.7% last week, Bitcoin held its position.

But let’s be real – if a major risk-off event really happens, Bitcoin isn’t immune. Investors will pull capital from all volatile assets and run into cash, Treasuries, or USD. That’s the pattern we’ve seen since 2020. The Fed’s dual mandate is in a tight spot – inflation risk is rising, but so is unemployment risk. In this scenario, all risk assets are vulnerable.

South Korea suffered heavily from its two-day crash. Hedge funds built short positions in US equity ETFs. 10-year Treasury yields jumped 6 basis points as traders priced in higher inflation. The buffer is shrinking, and the next move is critical.

So what I’m watching – if the oil shock persists and the Fed struggles to balance the situation, a deeper pullback could happen for everything, including Bitcoin. But for now, crypto is performing better than expected given the chaos in traditional markets. Worth keeping an eye on at Gate to see how this situation evolves.