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Analysis indicates that even if a ceasefire is reached, it may not become a catalyst for rate cuts. On the contrary, easing conflicts could weaken economic downside risks, making inflation issues more prominent and prolonging the period of high interest rates.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that the current Fed is facing multiple supply shocks simultaneously, with a risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored. Some officials have hinted that if inflation remains persistently above target, they may reconsider rate hikes. Overall, market optimism for rate cuts within the year is cooling, and the timing window for Fed policy shift is further pushed back.