BIT Research: Bitcoin Approaches Key Support, April May Bring a Directional Decision Period

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This round of the crypto market is in an important transition phase. After Bitcoin went through several months of pullback, it has recently rebounded slightly and is retesting the key support range that was previously broken. Overall, however, the market’s repair foundation remains not solid, and the trend outlook is still relatively fragile. Macroeconomic pressure continues to accumulate, marginal liquidity is weakening, and meanwhile key policy events are approaching, causing the market’s pricing logic to be changing. Entering April, although the market has somewhat bullish seasonal expectations, the historical record shows clear divergence in performance. Price action is more likely to be driven jointly by liquidity, positioning structure, and macro catalysts rather than a simple repetition of the cycle.

Support repeatedly tested: trend fragility has not eased

Since Bitcoin entered the downtrend phase in October 2025, it has now tested the key support range for the third time. Historically, similar structures often play out like this: after support breaks, price quickly dips further; then it forms a phase low and attempts to build new support, but the overall trend does not truly reverse. The market is again returning to a similar position, suggesting that the downside support is still in the process of repeated validation, and trend fragility has not shown a clear improvement.

In terms of timing, this kind of consolidation at low levels usually does not complete directional confirmation immediately; instead, it needs to go through a period of choppy trading before moving into the next phase of the trend. The current $65,000–$66,000 range has become a key watershed. Once it is lost, the market may enter an accelerated downtrend phase again, and the downside space could point even further to lower ranges.

Liquidity and macro dominance: timing matters more than direction

April has long been viewed as a relatively strong month, but historical data shows this pattern is not stable. Especially when Bitcoin enters April in a non-strong posture, price action often shows phased divergence. In this round, Bitcoin enters the month in a relatively neutral state, similar to the environment before the previous rally, but the short-term timing remains rather cautious.

More importantly, the market’s dominant factors have shifted from a single narrative to liquidity and macro variables. Rising oil prices lift inflation expectations, reinforcing the market’s view that the central bank will maintain a relatively hawkish stance, and also supporting the U.S. dollar—factors that have historically posed pressure on Bitcoin. In addition, the slowdown in stablecoin growth and the way ETF flows are sensitive to policy signals also reflect that liquidity has not yet formed sustained upside momentum.

From the time structure perspective, timing within April is also critical: early in the month, liquidity is relatively thin and volatility is amplified; in mid-month, macro data and policy expectations are released in dense bursts; and by the end of the month, once the FOMC meeting lands, the market may gradually clarify direction. This means that, compared with simply judging up or down, timing will become a more core trading variable.

Overall, Bitcoin is still in a relatively fragile phase, and short-term downside pressure has not been fully released. In a baseline scenario, in the first half of April the market may continue to trade weakly. If the key support range is lost, the downside rhythm may accelerate further. But in terms of cycle positioning, the weakening this time may already be close to the later stage of the downtrend. As the selling pressure from taxes gradually fades and policy expectations move toward stability, the market environment is likely to improve at the margin. Even if a rebound occurs, momentum is more likely to emerge gradually in mid-month or the second half. For investors, at the current stage it is not advisable to rely on simple seasonal patterns; instead, you should focus on changes in liquidity, macro variables, and positioning structure, and—while controlling risk—wait for clearer repair signals to appear.

Some of the viewpoints above come from BIT on Target, and contact us to get the full BIT on Target report.

Disclaimer: The market is risky, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading digital assets may involve extremely high risks and instability. Investment decisions should be made only after carefully considering your personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.