#Gate广场四月发帖挑战

The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 20 basis points! The gold market could face a sharp decline, and the risk of crypto liquidations is increasing.

1. Why did the "20 basis point rate cut" expectation suddenly reverse overnight?

On the evening of April 3, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data that surprised the market: in March, U.S. non-farm employment increased by 178k jobs, far exceeding the expected 60k, reaching the highest level since December 2024. The unemployment rate slightly decreased from 4.4% in February to 4.3%.

This data sharply contrasted with the previous market expectation of an "economic slowdown." Just a month earlier, February's non-farm payrolls showed a decrease of 92k jobs, well below expectations, indicating a period of softening in the labor market. The market expectation shifted dramatically from a "plunge" to a "rebounce" within just a few weeks.

The latest data from CME's "FedWatch" tool shows a 99.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in April, and only a 6.0% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by June, with a 93.5% chance of no change. The market's bets on rate cuts throughout 2026 have significantly shrunk, with the previously hotly discussed rate cut expectations almost disappearing overnight.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also clearly stated that the current policy is "appropriate for now." Faced with downside risks in the employment market and persistent inflation pressures, the Fed needs to wait for clearer signals before adjusting policy.

2. Gold swings over $100 in three days

The sharp decline in rate cut expectations has put noticeable pressure on the gold market.

This week, international gold prices experienced intense volatility. On April 1, gold rebounded briefly amid easing Middle East geopolitical tensions. However, on April 2, U.S. President Trump delivered a nationwide speech, stating that the U.S. would continue to aggressively target Iran over the next two to three weeks. This statement shattered hopes for a quick de-escalation of the conflict.

Oil prices surged accordingly. By the evening of April 2, WTI crude futures rose over 12%, breaking through $112 per barrel; Brent crude futures increased over 8%, approaching $110 per barrel. Meanwhile, spot gold fell 1.7% in a single day, closing at $4,676 per ounce, quickly retreating from the $4,800 level during the session, with a low of $4,554—more than a 10% decline from the highs two weeks earlier.

Xinhua Finance analysis pointed out that the recent gold price decline is related to the escalation of Middle East geopolitical conflicts, a strengthening dollar index, and the significant contraction of Fed rate cut expectations. The pricing logic in the gold market is reverting to the main theme of high interest rate suppression.

Notably, while gold prices are falling back, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, quietly increased its holdings by 3.71 tons to 1,050.99 tons on April 1. This reflects that some long-term funds are using the pullback to accumulate positions, contrasting with short-term selling.

3. Cryptocurrency market faces significant selling pressure

Compared to the oscillations in the gold market, the crypto market is under even greater pressure.

On April 2, Trump's statements about continuing to target Iran caused a sharp decline in market risk appetite. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $66k; Ethereum fell over 4%, and Solana dropped over 5%.

CoinGlass data shows that in the past 24 hours, over 180k traders were liquidated, with total liquidation reaching $386 million. Long positions accounted for $230 million, and short positions for $150 million. From April 1 to April 3, in just three days, the crypto market experienced over 400k liquidations totaling more than $1.1 billion.

Even more concerning, during this intense volatility, a "whale" account opened a BTC short position with 40x leverage, holding $13.3 million worth of Bitcoin. Such extreme leverage means that a 2.5% rebound in Bitcoin's price could trigger forced liquidation, posing very high risk.

Pantera Capital founder Dan Morehead noted that during geopolitical crises, institutions tend to reduce risk exposure immediately, and Bitcoin becomes one of the assets they can liquidate in real-time. This has caused Bitcoin to face significant short-term selling pressure.

Overall, the market is undergoing a re-pricing driven by "rate cut expectations." Strong non-farm payroll data in March has significantly reduced the likelihood of Fed rate cuts in the near term, while rising oil prices due to Middle East conflicts further limit monetary policy adjustments. Fed officials' repeated statements about "keeping rates steady" have made assets sensitive to interest rates, such as gold and cryptocurrencies, the primary targets. For ordinary investors, the biggest risk now is not the direction of the market but the volatility caused by high leverage—regardless of betting on rises or falls, sudden news can wipe out positions.