As of the afternoon of March 30, the cryptocurrency market experienced a round of intense volatility characterized by "breaking first, then establishing."

Bitcoin (BTC) initially plunged to around $64,785 in early trading, then quickly rebounded driven by large on-chain fund inflows and short covering. It is currently trading in the $67,000-$67,600 range, about 4% above the intraday low, with a 24-hour change between +0.8% and +1.4%.

Ethereum (ETH) moved in sync, currently hovering around $2,000-$2,020. Its intraday low touched $1,978, while the high briefly reached $2,057. The ETH/BTC exchange rate approached multi-year lows, reflecting Ethereum’s continued relative weakness amid capital competition.

The market’s rebound today was primarily driven by marginal easing expectations regarding the Middle East situation—Pakistan preparing for US-Iran peace talks, with both diplomats agreeing to meet, and Trump instructing the Pentagon to pause airstrikes on Iranian energy facilities to facilitate diplomatic progress.

However, this positive signal should be approached with caution. Middle East risks are being "postponed" rather than eliminated, and the market is already aware of this. The US Treasury yield spread widened by about 27%, and market liquidity temporarily dropped to around 10% of normal levels. Market makers continued to shrink, counterparties decreased, and trading shifted from "active trading" to "passive matching." In this environment, prices are more likely to be driven by liquidation events rather than fundamentals.

Brent crude oil remains high at $115 per barrel, with WTI crude at $100.7 per barrel. Elevated energy costs directly boost inflation expectations, forcing the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts. CME data shows a 96.4% probability that the Fed will keep rates in the 3.5%-3.75% range, with the first rate cut now pushed to after December 2027.

For Bitcoin, this means the valuation pressure on non-yield assets will persist; for Ethereum, the high-interest rate environment further suppresses on-chain lending activity and demand elasticity.

This week’s data window is critical for testing the strength of the rebound. Whether short-term geopolitical easing can offset potential macroeconomic pressures will determine if BTC can hold the $65,000 support and challenge resistance levels or re-enter a downward channel. If Ethereum’s $1,990 support level is broken this week, technical analysis may open a new bottoming space. #BTC能否守住6.5万美元？ $BTC