The US-Iran conflict faces a critical window, with signals from the US and Japanese central banks resonating with hawkish tones

Currently, global financial markets are at the intersection of geopolitical tensions and monetary policy shocks. As the US-Iran situation enters a deep phase of "talk and strike combined," and the US and Japanese central banks signal rate hikes due to inflation pressures, market volatility has approached a critical point.
1. US-Iran Situation: From "Maximum Pressure" to "Diplomatic Game" Turning Point
Strategic game during the five-day window: As the "5-day pause in strikes" window set by the Trump administration approaches its end, markets are focusing on whether the US and Iran can reach a phased consensus on passage rights through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's current "selective blockade" strategy essentially uses energy routes as leverage to force concessions from the US in nuclear negotiations.
Energy risk pricing: Geopolitical risk premiums have pushed oil prices above $100 dollars. If diplomatic efforts fail and military conflict escalates, a systemic collapse of the global energy supply chain could become a real threat.
2. Central Bank Resonance: "Defensive Hawkish" Amid Inflation Anxiety
Secondary inflation driven by energy costs is reshaping global interest rate differentials:
Federal Reserve (Fed): Although rates were held steady in March, the risk of stagflation triggered by energy costs has completely extinguished expectations of rate cuts. Powell's tone has shifted, indicating the Fed may restart rate hikes to hedge against external shocks.
Bank of Japan (BoJ): With the yen approaching the 160 level and dual pressures from imported inflation, internal hawkish disagreements within the BoJ have intensified, and market expectations for a rate hike in April have significantly increased.
The current market logic chain has been simplified to "War spillover → Uncontrolled inflation → Rising interest rates."
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