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Dollar-Yen breaks 160 again—when this number last appeared, the global markets trembled for an entire week. Do you remember?
The script for July 2024: USD/JPY breaks 160 → Bank of Japan intervenes → Yen rapidly appreciates → Global arbitrage forced to close positions → Nasdaq crashes in a week, Bitcoin plunges, emerging markets are collectively swept away.
The logic of arbitrage trading is simple: borrow yen at ultra-low interest rates, buy high-yield dollar assets. As long as the exchange rate remains stable, this business is a printing press. But once the yen starts to rise, leverage becomes a noose, and the forced liquidation speed is so fast you won’t have time to react.
The current issue isn’t “whether they will intervene”—it’s “when they will intervene.” The Bank of Japan’s move is highly inevitable, and market positions are likely even more crowded than last time.
160 is not just a price; it’s a trigger. It ignited last time, and this time, are your positions ready?
#美元日元 # Yen Arbitrage #USDJPY # Bank of Japan #MacroTrading