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Vietnam inflation forecast for 2026 under scenario ( updated until 28/03/2026
According to the latest reports from the Ministry of Finance, State Bank, MBS, VinaCapital, MUFG, ADB, and the General Statistics Office, the average inflation in 2026 ) CPI ( remains within the National Assembly's target control ) ~4.5%, but cost-push pressures from oil prices ( fluctuating between 96-120 USD per barrel, which could escalate ) is the biggest risk. Every $10 per barrel increase in oil price could push CPI up by 0.25-0.45 percentage points.
There are 3 scenarios:
1. Favorable ( low-medium probability )
- Conditions: Oil prices quickly drop to 75-90 USD per barrel ( successful Iran-US negotiations, Hormuz stability ). Then domestic gasoline prices ~22,000-24,000 VND/liter. Average CPI around 3.6% - 4.0%.
- Consequences: Low cost-push pressure, easy to control inflation, minimal impact on GDP.
2. Most likely scenario currently ( highest probability )
- Conditions: Oil prices fluctuate between 95-110 USD per barrel ( moderate prolonged conflict until Q2-Q3 ). Then domestic gasoline prices ~24,800-25,500 VND/liter. Average CPI around 4.0% - 4.3% ( could rise to 4.3-4.5% in Q2 ).
- Consequences: Cost-push inflation spreads through transportation/logistics, but Stabilization Fund + tax reductions help contain it.
3. Unfavorable ( high risk if escalation occurs )
- Conditions: Oil prices sustained at 120-150+ USD per barrel ( prolonged Hormuz disruption until Q3-Q4 ). Then domestic gasoline prices >26,000-28,000 VND/liter. CPI average around 4.6% - 5.2% ( may exceed 5% if prolonged ).
- Consequences: Inflation exceeds target, GDP drops by 0.7-1.3 percentage points ( according to ADB/MUFG ). Strong indirect impacts on manufacturing, food.
Note: Currently ( end of March 2026 ), we are close to the baseline scenario, with February CPI only at 3.35%, but pressure in March-April is rising. Some measures like fuel price stabilization funds, temporary tax reductions, and energy-saving incentives are being implemented. These measures help “absorb” 30-50% of the oil shock in the short term.
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Wishing you happiness.
Wishing you abundance.
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