2026-03-27 11:25:17

Regarding the ceasefire and peace talks between the United States and Iran

Probabilities of two Polymarket events
Combined, they could trigger a chemical reaction
- First, both have high trading volumes
Mainly during the betting periods in late March and late April
- Probability of U.S. ground forces entering Iran
Already at 62% before the end of April
At the same time, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire probability is 40% by the end of April, rising to 52% by the end of May
- Probability of ground forces entering Iran before the end of this year
Has surged to 71%, with the ceasefire probability reaching 76%
This is also the expectation for the midterm elections
Allowing funds to settle the betting early
As the high-demand, high-consumption summer begins in June
If oil prices do not return to normal,
Then Trump is basically destined to lose the midterm elections

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