Ethereum Price ($ETH ‌ETH) Facing Critical Resistance Ahead of the $3,000 Dream

Ethereum Price
ETHUSD
successfully reclaimed an important technical level near $2,110, repeating a pattern that previously triggered a 20% rally earlier this month.

However, there are two on-chain signals indicating that this breakout attempt is facing stronger resistance than before. The difference between the March 9 (reclaimed earlier) and today lies in who still wants to sell and how much room remains before holders start taking profits.

Red Bar Volume Warns After Reclaiming SMA

ETH has been moving within an upward parallel channel pattern on the daily chart since February 6, after experiencing a 43% decline from the swing high on January 28. This channel pattern is not necessarily bullish. An upward channel formed after a sharp decline often indicates a continuation pattern, not a reversal, so ETH needs to break above the upper trendline (or the most important swing high) to confirm a genuine trend change.

The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), an indicator averaging the last 20 closing prices, was successfully reclaimed on March 9 and led to a roughly 20% rally until March 16. This increase was accompanied by a series of green volume bars, signaling buyers controlled the market during the price rise.

This time, the pattern appears different. The reclaiming started with decent volume, but red volume bars appeared on the March 26 candle. These red volume bars indicate selling pressure entering during the rally, a signal not seen during the March 9 breakout.

Since the daily candle is still forming, a change in buying interest toward the end of the day could alter this situation. If green volume returns and sustains, reclaiming this SMA could still develop into a larger move.

However, volume alone is not enough to explain why resistance might be lower this time. The answer lies in on-chain profitability data.

NUPL Shows Sellers Have Fewer Reasons to Hold

Net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), an indicator of holder profitability across all Ethereum addresses, was around -0.11 on March 8, in a deep capitulation zone. At that level, most holders were still in loss, providing minimal incentive to sell. The lack of selling pressure allowed the SMA 20 reclaim to proceed unimpeded up to $2,380.

Current NUPL readings tell a different story. As of March 25, NUPL is at 0.00061, only slightly positive. Although this number seems small, it is a significant change from -0.11 before the recent rally. On March 22 (before this reclaim), NUPL was already at -0.05, well above the previous capitulation point.

The implication is clear. Holders who suffered significant losses in early March are now approaching break-even. Some are already recovered enough to consider selling—not for profit, but to minimize losses. If ETH traders see momentum waning, this breakeven zone could become a distribution area, where ETH supply exceeds demand.

Yet, one group is not selling. Ethereum whales, large non-exchange wallets, increased their collective holdings from 121.72 million ETH to 122.62 million ETH between March 24 and 26, according to Santiment data. This increase of about 900,000 ETH, worth roughly $1.94 billion at current prices, indicates strong confidence from the largest holders.

However, this whale accumulation is not as aggressive as in early March. This aggressive action was one reason why Ethereum’s price previously surged 20% despite rising NUPL. This time, NUPL is high, but whales have not added ETH in large scale. Could they be waiting for a confirmation of higher prices first?

Ethereum Price Levels Depend on Realized Price Boundaries

The Ethereum price forecast for this phase heavily depends on ETH’s ability to close above the confluence zone between $2,330 and $2,410, two key technical levels. The ETH realized price, which is the average acquisition price of all coins in the network, is above $2,350 according to Glassnode data—right in the middle of this confluence zone. This realized price band often acts as a major support/resistance during high market volatility.

This cluster is important because a daily close above $2,410 would accomplish three things. It would push ETH above the realized price, meaning the average holder feels more confident. It would also break the Fibonacci resistance at 0.618, confirming a channel breakout. And it would surpass the previous March rally’s swing high at $2,380.

If that happens, the next resistance levels are at $2,520, $2,650, and the extension at 1.618 at $3,050. Therefore, the ETH $3,000 dream remains theoretically possible.

On the downside, the first level to hold is $2,160. A daily close below this level would indicate that buyers from the SMA moment are retreating. Below that, there is a floor at $2,010, and if broken, the risk of falling below $2,000 reemerges.

Thus, a daily close above $2,410 would differentiate a whale-supported rally toward $3,000 from the risk of a return to the channel’s lower boundary.