Today (March 25, 2026), the international situation presents four major trends: concentrated geopolitical conflicts, global economic pressure, severe financial market volatility, and intensified great power competition—marking one of the most turbulent periods since World War II.

I. Middle East: US-Iran Standoff Reaches White Heat, Energy Lifeline in Crisis

1. Conflict Enters "Revenge Cycle"
- Iran launches new round of missile strikes on southern Israel; Israeli military on full alert; Iranian Revolutionary Guards continue threatening US military bases in the Middle East.
- US-Iran negotiations trapped in "Rashomon": US claims dialogue is productive and pauses strikes for 5 days; Iran officially denies this categorically.
- Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant attacked again; Russia issues stern warning; nuclear facility risks escalating.

2. Energy Impact Goes Global
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disrupted; Brent crude oscillates violently, briefly falling below $100 before rebounding.
- Global inflation pressure surges; Europe, Japan, and Asia-Pacific economies pressured simultaneously.

3. US Military Reinforcement
- 31st Expeditionary Unit to arrive in Middle East on March 27; military deployment and diplomatic mediation proceed in parallel.

II. Russia-Ukraine: Russian "Spring-Summer Offensive" Fully Launched

1. Russia Launches Largest-Scale Air Strikes of the Year
- Starting March 24, Russia deploys 390+ drones + 34 missiles, striking energy and military facilities across 11 Ukrainian regions.
- Large-scale blackouts in Kyiv, Kharkiv and 6 other regions; conflict intensity reaches yearly high.

2. Peace Negotiations Completely Frozen
- Russia-US-Ukraine tripartite security working group suspends operations; diplomatic resolution path closes; prolonged conflict confirmed.

III. Global Economy: Stagflation Risk Rises, Financial Markets Volatile

1. Federal Reserve "Hawkish to the End"
- Maintains rates at 3.5%–3.75%; only 1 rate cut expected in 2026; elevated rates persist longer.
- US Treasury yields rise; dollar strengthens; suppresses global liquidity.

2. Commodities "Ice and Fire"
- Oil: Geopolitical premium dominates; oscillates at elevated levels.
- Gold: Risk-off ineffective; major pullback pressured by dollar and high rates.

3. European Economy Weakens
- Eurozone March PMI hits 10-month low; Germany and France cool simultaneously; ECB faces dilemma of "controlling inflation vs. supporting growth."

IV. Great Power Landscape: Multipolar Competition Accelerates, Uncertainty Rises

1. China-US: Competitive Coexistence
- Competition continues across technology, AI, finance, South China Sea, and Taiwan Strait; post-US election policy direction is the biggest variable.

2. Europe: Internal Divisions Intensify
- Immigration, energy costs, far-right rise; social fracturing evident.

3. Global South and Western Camp Divergence Deepens
- Russia-Ukraine and Middle East conflicts mark fissures between two camps; multilateral order restructures rapidly.

V. Today's Core Conclusions

- Immediate Greatest Risks: Middle East conflict spillover, nuclear facility risks, sustained elevated oil prices.
- Medium-term Main Lines: Prolonged Russia-Ukraine attrition, Fed high rates, global stagflation pressure.
- Investment and Trading Signals: Risk-off sentiment dominates; energy and defense sectors stronger; gold and tech stocks pressured; market volatility remains elevated.

#加密市场回涨