# Crude Oil Discussion

After testing bottom levels, a rebound has begun. From the chart perspective, selling pressure is extremely heavy, lacking direct V-shaped reversal conditions.

Japan's storage release on Thursday is a concrete "increase in supply," which means clear bearish news. Just now, Wang Yi had a phone call with Iran's foreign minister, where Iran stated it is currently only blocking the strait for combatant nations.

Based on my analysis, the upside push faces obstruction, with a second bottom test likely.

Given the moving average resistance around 104.5 is too close, combined with the impending bearish impact of Japan's epic storage release, this rebound wave likely won't go far. Funds will probably leverage the bearish news to push down another wave, testing or even piercing the 100.00 support level.

If it breaks below 100, with geopolitical crisis sentiment from Iran providing a cushion, if it can quickly form a long lower wick and pull back above 100, that would indeed be a bear trap, with subsequent rebounds testing 106 or even higher.

However, if the actual impact of the storage release exceeds expectations, causing a large bearish candle to directly pierce through 100 without recovery, then this becomes a trend breakdown. Downside space would be completely opened up, and previous bulls holding stubbornly would face a stampede.

Currently, either wait for the rebound to reach 104.4-106.8 moving average resistance zone showing fatigue before shorting; or patiently wait for this pullback, observing around 100.00 for a clear "breakdown and recovery" stabilization signal before going long.