ETH Market Correction: MVRV Z-Score Reaches Alert Level, Mixed Views on Bottom

In the current Ethereum market, important warning signals indicated by on-chain data are attracting market attention. According to the latest data, ETH has entered a level prone to excessive selling, with the MVRV z-score, which compares market capitalization and realized profit, falling to -0.42. This indicator is commonly used to determine whether an asset is overbought or oversold. As of March 23, 2026, ETH’s price is $2.19K, and its circulating market value is $264.36B.

Selling Pressure Indicated by On-Chain Data: Understanding the Role of the MVRV z-score

The MVRV z-score is a key indicator of investor performance in the market. When this indicator enters negative territory, it suggests many investors are holding unrealized losses. The current level of -0.42 indicates there is significant selling pressure.

However, what’s important here is the comparison with past lows. During the market bottoms of 2018 and 2022, the MVRV z-score reached historically low levels of about -0.76. This means that the current -0.42 still leaves room for further downside compared to these past crisis points.

Different Perspectives from Fundamental Analysis: Diverging Views on Bottom Detection

Some analysts emphasize technical indicators, suggesting that the z-score could decline further, implying additional downside potential for ETH.

Conversely, other analysts focus on on-chain activity, continuous protocol development, and ecosystem improvements. They argue that Ethereum’s fundamental indicators do not show any intrinsic deterioration; rather, they are steadily improving across several key aspects. From this perspective, the current market correction is seen as a temporary phase, disconnected from long-term value.

Why Now Is a Critical Window for Buying Opportunities

Determining whether ETH has truly bottomed in the market cycle is still premature. In a situation where technical indicators and fundamentals diverge, this moment is arguably the most crucial for market participants to assess ETH’s positioning.

The dual nature of the market—where the z-score remains negative while on-chain core metrics continue to improve—is the essential characteristic of the current market. When making investment decisions, it is necessary to reevaluate ETH’s value not only based on short-term indicators but also considering long-term protocol evolution and ecosystem development.