I. Core Reason for Global Selloff (One-Sentence Summary)

Fed's super-hawkish decision on March 19 + oil-driven inflation surge + surging US Dollar Index created a triple resonance that crushed global risk assets and commodities.

II. Key Trigger Points (March 19 FOMC Meeting)

- Rate cut expectations completely cooled: Only 1 rate cut (25bp) expected for the full year, likely at year-end; 7 committee members directly see "no rate cuts this year."
- Hawkish rhetoric: Powell explicitly did not rule out further rate hikes, stating high rates need to be "maintained longer."
- Inflation uptick: February PPI at 3.4% YoY, core at 3.9%, hitting one-year highs; oil prices + geopolitical conflicts pushing up inflation expectations.
- US Dollar Index surging: Capital flowing back to US Dollar/US Treasuries, pressuring gold, base metals, and tech stocks and other high-valuation/USD-priced assets.

III. Market Performance (as of March 20)

- US Stock Market: Dow down over 600 points; Nasdaq and tech stocks leading the decline, retracing ~10% from highs.
- European Stocks: German DAX and others down over 10%, facing triple pressure from energy, geopolitics, and economic weakness.
- Gold: Crashed nearly $1,000/oz from highs, down ~8% for the week, largest weekly decline in years.
- Crude Oil: Oscillating at elevated levels but with extreme risk of chasing strength; institutions warn of "exhausted momentum."

IV. Next Week's Outlook (Combined with Your Views + Institutional Consensus)

1. Highly likely a "final dip" with shock-based capitulation: Non-trending bear market, more like high-volatility washout.
2. Institutional Logic: Retail panic selling → Institutions accumulating at low prices → Subsequent rebound, similar to CPO's Friday surge "squeeze play."
3. Crude Oil: Even if it rallies further, it's exhausted momentum; ordinary investors should avoid chasing.
4. Gold/Base Metals: May rebound after short-term oversold conditions, but bottom-fishing requires scaling in and position management.
5. Operational Recommendations:
- Control positions (~50% allocation), avoid panic selling or chasing rallies.
- Monitor early-April non-farm payroll and inflation data to gauge Fed's next move.
- Tech/growth stocks and CPO as main themes; pullbacks offer good accumulation opportunities.

V. One-Sentence Conclusion

March's selloff is expectation revision + emotional panic; next week likely sees shock-based capitulation as the final dip; controlling positions, avoiding chasing, and scaling into main themes on dips is more prudent.

Investment carries risk; enter the market with caution! The above is purely personal opinion and for reference only.