Bitcoin Bottom-Fishing Indicators Collectively Fail, $45,000 May Be Last Defense Line

Bitcoin has reversed course again after eight consecutive daily gains, declining continuously from $76,000 and currently trading around $69,200. For players eager to bottom-fish, the biggest confusion right now is: how have those indicators that once worked reliably suddenly stopped working?

The Ahr999 index has been lying in the sub-0.45 bottom-fishing zone for nearly 50 days. In the past, this would have been the time to close your eyes and enter the market, but the market keeps falling regardless. The MVRV Z-Score isn't faring much better either. Previously, touching negative values meant a golden opportunity, but in this cycle the lowest level only reached +0.26, and the so-called "green zone" never actually appeared. The STH-SOPR staying below 1 continuously has set a record for the longest duration since last October. Typical bearish characteristics are on display, but there are no signs of a reversal.

What's the problem? Simply put, Bitcoin's pricing logic has changed. After spot ETFs were approved, institutional holdings, derivatives arbitrage, exchange internal settlements, and even U.S. macro monetary policy have become the dominant forces controlling prices. Those traditional indicators based on on-chain address behavior have had their underlying assumptions completely shattered. The MVRV Z-Score's denominator has been artificially inflated by ETF's massive holdings, Ahr999's mean reversion logic appears powerless in the face of liquidity contraction, and SOPR fails to reveal genuine panic capitulation because long-term holders' profits are too substantial.

So what should we look at now? The industry has started turning its attention to several indicators that better fit the current market.

The CVDD model developed by analyst Willy Woo tracks Bitcoin's cumulative holding weight at different price levels, constructing a "historic iron floor" curve that has never been broken. In December 2018 and November 2022, the market twice approached this line and subsequently reversed. Currently, CVDD's iron floor sits around $45,000.

The NUPL indicator measures the network's unrealized profit and loss. Dropping to negative values typically signals fear or capitulation, a potential bottom signal. The last time this occurred was from June 2022 to January 2023. This value is currently hovering around 0.2, suggesting chip washing hasn't been thorough enough yet.

Stablecoin exchange net inflows may be the most direct leading indicator—price rebounds without stablecoin inflows are merely leverage-driven technical bounces. Currently USDT and USDC continue bleeding out, with real bottoming still some distance away.

Overall, the market may be in an awkward phase: the valuation bottom has appeared, but the funding bottom and sentiment bottom have not arrived. What needs watching next is whether CVDD's $45,000 iron floor defense holds and when stablecoins begin flowing back in.

Buy when nobody cares, sell when everyone is talking about it. Only when Tony the barber starts asking you how to buy Bitcoin should you consider exiting. #Gate13周年全球庆典 $ETH ‌$BTC ‌