🚨 BREAKING: S&P 500 $SPX just closed below the 200 day moving average for the first time since May 9th.

The last time the S&P closed below the 200-day MA was May 9, 2025 during the tariff crash. It fell another 2.3% before bottoming and then rallied 28% over the next 8 months.
But the setup was completely different.
That was a policy shock with a clear off-ramp (tariff negotiations). This is a physical supply disruption with no end date.
Today’s damage report:
S&P 500: 6,624 (-1.36%)
Dow: 46,225 (-1.63%, lowest close of 2026)
Nasdaq: -1.46%
Russell 2000: -1.64%
What hit in the same session:
∙PPI: +0.7% (double the 0.3% estimate)
∙Fed held rates, dot plot shows only 1 cut. Traders pricing zero.
∙Iran struck Qatar’s Ras Laffan (20% of global LNG) with ballistic missiles
∙Brent closed at $107.38
Historically, when the S&P breaks below the 200-day MA:
∙If it reclaims within 5 days: usually a bear trap, V-recovery
∙If it stays below for 2+ weeks: average further drawdown is 12-15%
The 200-day MA was the last technical support bulls were defending. It just broke.