⚠️ Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision · Operational Risk Alert

⏰ Key Time: Beijing Time March 19, 02:00 Decision Release / 02:30 Powell Speech
🔴 Core Risk Reminders

1. Current Probability: CME data shows March rate hold probability at 99.1%. Rate cut expectations have already been largely priced in by the market. Any hawkish surprise or strong rhetoric from Powell could trigger severe volatility.

2. Amplified Volatility: Middle East conflict + elevated oil prices have made market sentiment extremely sensitive. Extreme market conditions such as spikes, flash crashes, and liquidity crunches are likely to occur before and after the decision.

3. Weakened Annual Expectations: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the expected number of rate cuts in 2026 has been reduced to 1-2. If Powell emphasizes "inflation still poses risks," it will further suppress valuations of risk assets.
✅ Operation Recommendations (Risk Avoidance Version)

• Reduce/Close Positions in Advance: For high-leverage, heavy positions, or those with minimal unrealized gains, it is recommended to reduce positions or fully close them at least 1 hour before the decision to lock in profits.

• Suspend New Position Opening: Prohibit opening new trades 1-2 hours before and after the decision to avoid being liquidated by instantaneous volatility or having positions blown out.

• Set Strict Stop Losses: If holding core positions unwilling to exit, be sure to increase stop loss levels to 1.5-2 times the standard level to prevent fake breakouts from triggering stops.

• Monitor Powell's Speech: The decision itself has already been fully priced in by the market. The 02:30 press conference is the true source of volatility. Focus on his statements regarding inflation and rate cut timing.

• Staggered Operations: If participating in post-speech market movements, wait 15 minutes after the speech concludes, enter with small positions only after the market direction becomes clear, and avoid chasing highs or selling lows.
🧘 Mindset Reminders

• Don't bet on "news events." Survival is more important than quick profits.

• Major moves are both opportunities and traps. Watch more and move less. Controlling drawdowns is the key to long-term profitability.

• If extreme market conditions occur, prioritize capital preservation and avoid attempting to "catch the bottom or pick the top."

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