This Federal Reserve meeting is expected to maintain the 3.50%-3.75% interest rate range unchanged, with a market consensus probability exceeding 99%. What's worth noting is that several officials at the January meeting proposed deleting language suggesting "the next action would be rate cuts." If this change is implemented this time, it will mark the first time the Federal Reserve admits the easing cycle may have ended, with extremely strong signaling implications.

Regarding the dot plot, December's dot plot showed that 12 out of 19 officials projected at least one rate cut within the year. However, if just 3 of them change their stance, the median forecast could shift toward "zero rate cuts," applying renewed pressure on Bitcoin. Conversely, if this meeting shows 2 or more rate cuts within the year, Bitcoin could be directly pushed to surge toward 80,000 or even higher.

As for Powell's press conference, this tai chi master will be responsible for interpreting policy signals for the second-to-last time. However, there's one issue: during the transition between the old and new chairs, capital moves on expectations. With personnel changes from chair to board member positions, it's inevitable that interest wanes. Powell's remarks will have reduced reference value. His statements on inflation risks and the Middle East situation may reveal the Fed's true inclinations.

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