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If I really had to give a basis for my short position, it's based on the "notching the boat to find the sword" method from 2022.
Back then, it went from a low of 26K to a high of 32.6K—a rebound of about 25%.
If 60K rebounds 25%, it would only reach 75. I'll give it a window up to 80.
Don't say the "notching the boat to find the sword" method is useless anymore.
The facts prove it actually works most of the time.
I previously also used the "notching the boat to find the sword" method around 120K, and it turned out successful in the end.