Thoma Bravo, Vista Reassure Investors as AI Selloff Hits Software

Khac Phu Nguyen

Fri, February 13, 2026 at 4:25 AM GMT+9 2 min read

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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

Artificial intelligence fears have jolted private markets, but the largest software-focused buyout firms are pushing back against the narrative. After last week’s equity selloff tied to concerns that new AI automation tools could disrupt enterprise software, Thoma Bravo and Vista Equity Partners moved quickly to engage limited partners. Thoma Bravo executives fielded investor questions and indicated they plan to circulate a letter addressing AI’s impact on their portfolio, while Vista Chief Executive Robert Smith emailed clients and scheduled a Feb. 19 webinar to discuss portfolio positioning and performance.

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Smith framed the recent volatility as primarily driven by sentiment and uncertainty rather than fundamental deterioration. He told investors that the vast majority of Vista’s portfolio companies are not experiencing meaningful churn or losing clients to AI alternatives, arguing that artificial intelligence could enhance software rather than replace it. He also noted that with fewer than 5% of software companies trading publicly, public equity and credit markets may lack sufficient visibility to draw firm conclusions about the sector’s trajectory. Drawing a parallel to the cloud adoption concerns of 2014, Smith suggested that the current environment could precede another extended period of value creation. Vista, which manages more than $100 billion and holds more than 90 companies, has launched what it calls an Agentic AI factory, with roughly a third of its 100 companies having used those tools to automate tasks and improve productivity, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Thoma Bravo, which manages more than $181 billion and holds over 75 portfolio companies, has similarly emphasized resilience within its holdings. Managing partner Holden Spaht wrote that several companies are navigating the AI transition well, highlighting strong bookings growth and high margins at billion-dollar revenue scale businesses, with growth trends that appear to be accelerating rather than slowing. The anxiety intensified after Anthropic released new automation tools spanning industries such as legal, data services and financial research, reviving disruption concerns that began with ChatGPT’s debut in late 2022. Yet other alternative asset managers, including KKR (NYSE:KKR), Blackstone (NYSE:BX), Carlyle (NASDAQ:CG), Apollo (NYSE:APO) and Ares (NYSE:ARES), have described their exposure to potentially vulnerable software assets as limited, often in the low single digits, with some firms reviewing portfolios and divesting assets viewed as threatened. Executives such as Ares CEO Michael Arougheti and Blackstone’s Michael Zawadzki have cautioned against broad generalizations, arguing that software cannot be assessed with a single brush and that many established businesses retain competitive advantages.

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