#美伊局势影响

Fire and Code: The "Ice and Fire" Market Trends of Cryptocurrency Amid US-Iran Conflict

Missiles in the Strait of Hormuz and computing power on Wall Street are fiercely clashing on the same digital battlefield.

"U.S. military sinks 42 Iranian vessels, crippling their communication systems." President Trump’s speech in Miami once again sent global markets into panic. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price repeatedly battled the $69,000 mark, with over 100,000 traders liquidated within 24 hours, totaling $366 million in liquidations.

01 Escalation of the Battle: From "Decapitation" to "Spillover"

This military strike, which began in late February, rapidly escalated into full-scale confrontation in the first week of March.

On March 7-8, the conflict intensified. The Israel Defense Forces announced over 3,400 airstrikes, heavily damaging Iran’s Parchin and Shahroud ballistic missile production bases. In response, Iran launched rounds 26 and 27 of "True Commitment," targeting U.S. military bases in Bahrain and Qatar with new missile and drone attacks.

The fire quickly spilled over. The U.S. embassy in Iraq was hit by rocket attacks, prompting air defense systems to intercept; in Dubai, debris from intercepted missiles caused a fatality. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi declared firmly that "unconditional surrender is impossible," while Trump threatened Iran with "extremely severe strikes."

Deeper impacts include a power vacuum. Iranian experts revealed that a meeting to select a new Supreme Leader would be held "within the next 24 hours" to address the current situation. This indicates that the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East is facing a reshaping.

02 Market Fluctuations: Failed Safe-Haven and Leverage Strangulation

Traditionally, geopolitical conflicts are seen as catalysts for gold and Bitcoin. But this time, the market gave a different answer.

Bitcoin did not rise due to the conflict; instead, it experienced a phenomenon of "safe-haven assets failing." On the evening of March 6, cryptocurrencies collectively declined, with Bitcoin dropping over 5%, breaking below the $69,000 level. Major tokens like Ethereum and Solana fell more than 6%. In stark contrast, traditional safe-haven asset gold strengthened in the early stages of the conflict.

Why this divergence? Experts point to a "death spiral" driven by high leverage.

Liquidity Run: Li Ming, Executive Chairman of the Hong Kong Web3.0 Standardization Association, analyzed that in emergencies, some need to sell Bitcoin for fiat currency to buy tickets or daily necessities; rising oil prices also prompted some groups to liquidate assets for liquidity.

Deleveraging: Professor Zhao Binghao, Director of the Fintech Legal Research Institute at China University of Political Science and Law, commented that these movements are hard to explain as traditional "safe-haven assets," but resemble typical "risk asset deleveraging," involving forced liquidations of high-leverage positions and liquidity stratification leading to a cascade of liquidations.

Simply put, when gunfire erupts, investors’ first reaction isn’t to buy Bitcoin for safety but to sell all high-risk assets for cash. The high leverage in derivatives markets triggered chain reactions of liquidations, further intensifying selling pressure.

03 Policy Game: Trump’s "Crypto Ambitions"

While the battlefield rages, another silent war unfolds in Washington—regulation of cryptocurrencies.

On March 4-5, Bitcoin rebounded sharply, briefly surpassing $74,000. Beyond technical rebound factors, a key driver was Trump’s strong support for crypto legislation.

Trump publicly endorsed the U.S. Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) and urged Congress to expedite its passage. The Chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Mike Selig, also openly supported perpetual crypto futures, aiming to bring this market back to the U.S.

"The Biden administration has pushed crypto companies and related investments overseas." Selig’s statement hints that the U.S. is trying to regain dominance in the crypto space through a relaxed regulatory environment. Amid the heavy fiscal costs of the US-Iran conflict, attracting global capital back to the U.S. has become a strategic choice for the Trump administration.

04 Future Trends: V-Shaped Reversal or L-Shaped Decline?

In the face of intense market volatility, investors are asking themselves: where is the bottom?

From a liquidity perspective, signs of hope are emerging. After months of net capital outflows, since March, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $1.1 billion in net inflows, with a single-day inflow of $462 million on March 4. Capital flows into these products are seen as key indicators of market confidence, with many institutional funds using ETFs to bottom out.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin remains above the $60,000 support level, facing resistance at $70,000. Analysts believe Bitcoin needs a strong breakout above $70,000 to truly attract buyers back into the market. The current volatility is more a pain point in the process of deleveraging.

"The worst is over," K33 researchers stated in a report. They noted that Bitcoin’s bottom phase has historically unfolded gradually. As long as the US-Iran conflict does not escalate into full-scale war, the resilience of cryptocurrencies will gradually become apparent.

Postscript: Between the smoke of Tehran and the K-lines of Wall Street, computing power is redefining the boundaries of power. When sovereignty credit wavers due to war, the trust value of decentralized networks may just be beginning.