Benjamin Cowen points out key moments in the Bitcoin cycle during the 2026 bear market

The Bitcoin market is immersed in a bearish environment, and many signs indicate we may witness a repeat of historical patterns. Benjamin Cowen, a well-known analyst with years of experience observing cryptocurrency cycles, reminds investors of the importance of cyclicality and old patterns that still repeat. Despite declines below key technical zones, the analyst suggests that current Bitcoin movements are not unusual—they align with the norms of the historical cycle.

The current Bitcoin price is $67,610 (as of March 7, 2026), representing a 0.78% decrease over the past 24 hours. This is a significant correction from the levels of 97-98K USD observed in January.

Turning Point: The Significance of February for Bitcoin in the Halving Cycle

Benjamin Cowen highlights February as a pivotal month for the market. During that period, the analyst warned of a possible cyclical contraction when Bitcoin was still around 97-98K USD. Since then, the market situation has clearly worsened.

A key observation Cowen makes is the so-called bear market resistance band—a band formed by the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) and the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA). In the years following a halving, this band often acts as resistance, and Bitcoin loses momentum. In 2026, the market shifted from a bullish support band to a resistance zone, with rejection occurring at those estimated levels.

The current weekly candle resembles the behavior seen in 2022—initially a long lower wick below a significant support, followed by weeks of gradual price weakening.

Historical Patterns as a Compass in a Bear Market

The pattern of behavior repeating during so-called midterm years—years after halving such as 2014, 2018, 2022, and now 2026—reveals interesting regularities. Benjamin Cowen emphasizes that the market reacts similarly across these cycles.

The typical pattern unfolds as follows:

• A strong downward wick below support appears first
• The market weakens or consolidates for two weeks
• Then a short rally upward occurs

However, the analyst notes an important disclaimer—this is historical observation, not a guarantee. It should not be taken as a signal for aggressive trading but rather as a broader market understanding.

March Peak? Timing the Market Is a Dangerous Game

Cowen draws particular attention to early March as a potential local top. Historically, the pattern shows short rebounds during bear markets, but their timing is unpredictable. Trying to catch these short-term moves is highly risky.

The analyst poses a fundamental question: is it worth trying to guess the exact moment of a rebound? His clear answer is—it’s better to focus on the long-term perspective. Short-term moves create chaos and can ruin an entire investment plan.

Benjamin Cowen proposes three key principles for investors:

• Avoid trying to predict local rallies
• Accept that the market is in a bear phase
• Look for better opportunities at the right time

Baseline Scenario for 2026: New Lows in Autumn?

According to Cowen’s analysis, 2026 may follow a familiar pattern. After the February low, a rally in March may occur. Then, a new weakness phase could develop in April and May. The market might decline again, forming a lower wick.

In the baseline scenario, a new bottom could appear in October, though the analyst does not rule out it happening earlier. Even May remains a realistic option. Historical data shows that year-to-date (YTD) results hover around the average—current price levels in early March are within one standard deviation, indicating the movement is within the cycle’s normal range.

Is the Bear Really Still in Charge? Resistance Band Awaits Testing

Benjamin Cowen maintains that Bitcoin is still in a bear market. The resistance band may be temporarily broken by a wick, but the ultimate effect could be rejection and further weakness. The market does not yet show signs of ending the bear phase.

The analyst also warns about false hope generated by some macroeconomic indicators, especially M2. According to Cowen, this measure often misleads investors—giving too much optimism at the end of a bull run and the start of a bear market. Therefore, he recommends broader macroeconomic analysis, monitoring liquidity, interest rates, and institutional capital behavior.

Cowen also comments on the behavior of influencers and commentators on social media. It’s harder to admit to a bear market than a bull—initial drops of 50% were easy to label, but the current scenario causes significant psychological difficulty for many market participants.

Practical Guide for Investors in a Bear Market

According to Benjamin Cowen, every investor should go through four phases of acceptance:

First, accept the realities of the current market—you are in a bear market, not in its final phase. Second, prepare mentally for a longer period of weakness and volatility. Third, this is the time to look for entry opportunities, but with great caution. Fourth, never put everything on short-term rebounds.

The local top in early March is a historically recurring but unpredictable scenario in terms of exact timing. Benjamin Cowen does not try to guess the precise moment—he focuses on the bigger picture.

Does this mean there’s no chance for growth? Absolutely not—short rallies in a bear market happen regularly. However, they should not form the basis of a long-term strategy. The most important thing is to correctly identify the main trend direction.

In summary, Cowen reminds us that Bitcoin’s current behavior is nothing extraordinary—markets move in line with the historical average. 2026 is unfolding according to a pattern similar to 2022. This is a crucial insight for anyone seeking to understand the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market and avoid emotional decisions.

The main message from the analyst is: patience, a long-term perspective, and avoiding the trap of short-term timing.