March 7th "Non-Farm Night Dive Review"

BTC/ETH In-Depth Analysis
Last night, during Non-Farm Night, many people were puzzled by the decrease in employment numbers, which theoretically indicates a sluggish U.S. economy and should lead to expectations of rate cuts. Why did the market react so strongly and drop so much? Here, Master Mi will review and analyze together:

1: BTC's main rebound has completed the ultimate target of 74,000. Short-term investors are taking profits intensively. Data shows that over 27,000 Bitcoins were transferred to exchanges within 24 hours, worth about $1.8 billion, aiming to lock in profits. These investors bought around $68,000, making them the most active selling group recently.

2: U.S. non-farm employment unexpectedly decreased by 92,000 in February, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, well below market expectations. Usually, weak economic data boosts rate cut expectations, which is favorable for risk assets. But this time, the market did not interpret it as good news; instead, it sparked fears of stagflation. Because while the data was weak, conflicts in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher, indicating a scenario where the economy might stagnate (poor employment) but inflation (high oil prices) persists. This combination puts the Federal Reserve in a dilemma — it cannot raise interest rates to suppress the economy nor easily cut rates to boost inflation. Traders' expectations for a rate cut in June only increased to 50%, far from enough to boost the market, and instead intensified worries.

3. Catalyst for Accelerated Adjustment: Geopolitical tensions escalate. Just before and after the non-farm data release, U.S. President Trump’s tough statement demanding Iran's "unconditional surrender" immediately heightened concerns about prolonged Middle East conflicts. This statement directly drove WTI crude oil prices to surge 17% intraday, breaking through $90. Oil price soaring reinforced inflation expectations and forced global funds to rapidly flee risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin, shifting into the dollar and U.S. Treasuries for safety. The dollar index has strengthened this week, putting direct pressure on risk assets.

These three points are what Master Mi believes are the direct reasons for the rapid pace of this correction.
Understanding these three points makes subsequent rebounds simple: go against these three factors — 1: Investors re-enter the market. 2: Expectations of rate cuts increase. 3: Middle East tensions ease. All three can directly and effectively promote a rebound in the crypto market.

Technical Analysis:
BTC: The night session broke below 69,000. The goal for intraday recovery is to return here, aiming to test the 69,000-71,400 median line. Look for pressure points to attempt short positions. Support at 67,150 is a key dividing line; if broken, beware of panic spreading. Over the weekend, the market may move sideways within a range, with opportunities in both directions. Keep a close eye on oil prices and Middle East developments, as news remains dominant.
$BTC
ETH: Struggled to stop falling at the key level of 1965. The main levels remain the same: the first target to break above is 2000-2015, then 2038-2075. These two near-term resistance zones can also be used for shorting. If the price falls below 1872-1912, beware of panic spreading, which could open up significant downside space. #$ETH
Following the order copy, we experienced the first major pullback last night. Some reflections are worth sharing — I’ve always wanted to avoid pushing signals during such intense moments to stay calm under the spotlight. I’ve been trying to overcome this weakness, as I’m close to a bottleneck period. I also want to remind everyone again: the market is always full of uncertainties. Don’t be fooled by past successes, and maintain a "long-term perspective." As the saying goes: "Long roads test a horse’s strength, and time reveals a person’s heart."