3.6 Afternoon Analysis

Bitcoin failed to rebound above 74,000 yesterday and has been declining since, with a low of 70,100. The short-selling idea in the 73,000 region has already played out. The current price is oscillating around 70,800, with the MA7 crossing below the MA30, indicating a clear bearish trend.

Tonight's Non-Farm Payrolls are a key variable: previous value was 130,000, forecasted at 59,000. Combined with Wednesday's ADP report of 63,000, positive sentiment has been digested. If the announced figure is in the 60,000-65,000 range, a sharp rise followed by a pullback is likely; if it surprises to the downside, prices may rise initially then fall, but the overall downward trend remains unchanged.

Bitcoin Strategy: Short in the 71,500-72,000 range, targeting 69,500-70,000. For medium to long-term, a break below 66,800 could signal further downside.

Altcoin Strategy: Follow Bitcoin's movement, with resistance at 2,130 and support at 1,860. Holding above 2,200 is the last line of defense for bulls; a break below opens more space for decline, and the outlook remains bearish.