📊 March 4th BTC Technical Analysis + Strategy (as of 18:00, current approximately $67,500)

Core conclusion: Range-bound oscillation between 65,000–69,000, mainly high-level selling, secondary low-level buying, strict position control

1. Key Price Levels (Precision)

- Resistance: 68,000 → 68,500 → 69,000 (Strong resistance / Double top neckline)
- Support: 66,000 → 65,000 (Strong support) → 63,000

2. Cycles and Indicators (Understand in one sentence)

- Daily: End of downward channel, MACD golden cross below zero line but no volume rebound, no reversal; long-term moving averages are bearish, mid-term slightly bearish
- 4-hour: Converging triangle consolidation, bearish momentum weakening, waiting for breakout
- 1-hour: Moving averages converged, RSI neutral, balanced between bulls and bears
- Volume: Rebound with no volume, decline with increased volume, funds are on the sidelines, no unilateral momentum

3. Intraday Strategy (Can be executed directly, for reference only, not investment advice)

1) High-level selling (Main strategy)

- Aggressive: Short position at 68,000 with light size, stop loss at 68,500, target 67,000 → 66,000
- Conservative: Short in the 68,500–69,000 range, stop loss at 69,200, target 67,500 → 66,000 → 65,000
- Logic: Double top neckline resistance, 4-hour slight pullback, volumeless rebound

2) Low-level buying (Secondary strategy, light position)

- Aggressive: Long at 66,000 with light size, stop loss at 65,500, target 67,000 → 67,500
- Conservative: Stable long at 65,000, stop loss at 64,800, target 66,800 → 67,500
- Logic: Daily strong support, oversold rebound demand

3) Breakout response (Key)

- Break above 69,200 (with volume): Exit short positions, observe or lightly long, aiming for 70,000 → 71,000
- Break below 65,000 (valid): Exit long positions, hold short positions, target 63,000 → 61,000

4. Position and Risk Control (Must see)

- Single-direction position ≤ 10%, total position ≤ 20%
- Strict stop loss, no holding against the trend, no chasing
- Prioritize range trading: high sell, low buy, avoid betting on a single trend

5. Market Outlook (1–2 weeks)

- Most likely: Range-bound oscillation between 65,000–70,000, waiting for halving and Federal Reserve decision to land
- Break above 70,000 → look up to 75,000
- Break below 65,000 → look down to 63,000 → 61,000