Market Analysis 2026.02.24

After ETH dropped to 2623 on November 20, 2025, I posted a tweet indicating that there would be a rebound, but it would only be a rebound because ETH is already in a downtrend. After the rebound ends, it will continue to decline. (The black segments in the chart represent the first decline and the rebound against it.) The overall trend of ETH from November 20, 2025, to now has been in line with expectations.

There are two possibilities for the decline starting from 4956. The first is that it is part of a simple three-wave structure—decline + rebound + decline. The blue line in the chart describes the entire decline of ETH, meaning the drop from 3447 is the final leg of the decline. Once completed, ETH will end its downtrend and at least have a rebound at the same level as the blue line, which could last for a quarter.

The second possibility is that the decline from 4956 is not a simple three-wave structure, as shown by the red line in the chart. After ETH finds a temporary low in mid-March, it will only experience a rebound against this red decline. After the rebound ends, ETH will continue to fall. Under this scenario, the overall downtrend could persist until the end of 2026 or even early 2027.