The Supreme Court Major Reversal! Trump's Tariff Empire Collapses, $120 Billion "Election Bonus" Soon to Hit Middle-Class Americans?🔥🔥

The U.S. Supreme Court has struck down Trump's "tariff firewall"! The global import tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) have been ruled unconstitutional. Trump quickly responded by raising the tariff rate from 10% to 15%. But is this trade war truly coming to an end?

Wall Street giants Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are both saying: Don’t panic! The impact will be limited, and this might actually be a "hidden benefit" for the economy in the second half of the year—tariff easing, tax refunds, and even possibly becoming a "money-spreading tool" for the midterm elections.

The Truth Behind the "Cooling" of Tariffs: Inflation Peak Has Passed, Economy Stable as Mount Tai
Don’t rush to celebrate or mourn. Goldman Sachs data shows that this ruling only slightly reduced the effective tariff rate by 1 percentage point, from just over 10% to about 9%. Sounds insignificant? Exactly! Because the "transmission effect" of tariffs on consumer prices has already played out.
As of January, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) increased by only 0.7%, with just an additional 0.1% over the remaining period of 2026. Simply put, most price increases have already been absorbed before the ruling.

What about businesses? They raise prices as fast as lightning but lower them as slowly as a turtle.
Goldman Sachs Chief Political Economist Alec Phillips bluntly states: There won’t be a "net deflation" gift, but future inflation will be more moderate than before. What about economic growth? Goldman Sachs forecasts Q1 2026 GDP at 3.4% (still 2.1% after excluding government shutdown effects), with a year-over-year growth rate of 2.5% in Q4. Will imports rebound? Yes, but offset perfectly by inventory buildup and trade shifts. In short, this isn’t an economic doomsday, just a minor episode.

July "Deadline" Approaching: From Strict Tariffs to Easing, Exemption Wave Coming

The climax hits on July 24! Trump’s executive order expires, and once the cap of 15% under Section 122 and the 150-day period are up, tariffs will have to "shut down." Morgan Stanley predicts: Trump appears hawkish on the surface but is actually moderate behind the scenes—more exemptions, exceptions, and extensions will emerge. This is consistent with the approach of the past few months.
Goldman Sachs details trade partners: the EU, Japan, and Switzerland may be affected, with tariffs "stacking" on the current 0-2.5%, causing a small increase. But the good news is that countries accounting for over half of U.S. imports (such as Australia, Vietnam, India, South Korea) are likely to be prioritized for exemptions! Countries like Brazil and South Africa, with a 10% share, face the greatest risk.
By early 2027, the government will use Section 301 to "revive" old tariffs, but in the short term, this is a golden window for trade easing. The risk? Lower tariffs after July, higher tariffs after the midterm elections—political games, who calls the shots?

Tax Refund "Bomb": $180 Billion Jackpot Turns into Trump’s "Election Stimulus Plan"?

The most eye-catching part is the tax refunds! The Supreme Court didn’t specify whether to refund, how to refund, or when to refund. Justice Kavanaugh dissented, calling it a "mess."
Goldman Sachs estimates that the $180 billion in tariffs collected will be mostly paid out in installments within a year. But who gets the money? Companies will file complaints first, and consumers? Media estimates show that middle-class Americans bear 90% of the burden, which means Trump could directly issue a $120 billion "red envelope"—depositing straight into bank accounts, called the "2026 Trump Tariff Refund Stimulus Plan"!

Morgan Stanley analysis: If refunds are paid using future taxes, the status quo remains; but if the government delays new taxes (likely in the second half or 2027), inflation will be suppressed, and the economy will pick up, turning into an unexpected growth engine. It’s not just money—it’s a "voter buying tactic" for the midterm elections—imagine middle-class Americans receiving checks, boosting Trump’s approval ratings?

Market Fluctuations: Short-term "Pain" for U.S. Bonds, Medium-term "Weakness" for the Dollar, Where Are the Opportunities?

Wall Street is divided, but the logic is clear. Morgan Stanley: short-term yields on U.S. bonds will spike (due to deficit fears and bond sell-offs), but will soon "buy the dip," with yields falling back as focus shifts to declining inflation.
What about the dollar? Tariff tools weaken, diplomatic flexibility is limited, and marginally negative; plus, with global growth rebounding (diversified import sources), the dollar will weaken in the medium term. Goldman Sachs adds: Changes in trade flows will make certain currencies "winners take all"—some countries will see export booms and currency appreciation.

Summary: This ruling is a legal earthquake, but the economy will only experience minor tremors.
The real show is in the second half—tariff easing and tax refunds could bring unexpected dividends. Investors, keep an eye on July and the progress of refunds! Favorable for consumer stocks and non-U.S. currencies. Amid trade fragmentation, exporting countries will be smiling. Is Trump’s tariff empire really collapsing? Or is it reborn from the ashes? Stay tuned—this trade show has just begun!

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