Soybean Losses Mount as Market Sentiment Shifts

Soybean futures are posting notable losses Monday in what appears to be a consolidation after recent market activity. The cmdtyView national average cash soybean price stands at $9.93 1/4, reflecting losses of approximately 4 1/4 cents compared to the prior session. The broader soybean complex shows mixed signals, with soymeal futures rallying 30 to 50 cents while soy oil futures declined 52 points, suggesting divergent demand expectations across protein and oil segments.

Export Activity Reflects Seasonal Headwinds

Recent export data reveals pressures on the US soybean market. The USDA’s FGIS reported soybean export shipments totaling 1.31 MMT (48.15 mbu) during the most recent reporting week, which came in 1.9% below the previous week. However, the data showed resilience with shipments running 14.9% ahead of year-ago levels. China captured the majority of these shipments at 740,004 MT, while secondary destinations included Mexico (137,596 MT) and Egypt (121,059 MT).

The more concerning picture emerges when examining marketing year totals. Year-to-date exports for 2025/26 have reached 21.99 MMT (808 mbu) since the September 1 start, yet this represents a sharp 35.7% decline versus the same period last year. The market has narrowed this deficit gap significantly in recent weeks, closing nearly 10 percentage points since early January, but substantial headwinds persist.

Trade Policy and Market Dynamics Provide Mixed Signals

Developments in US-India trade relations introduced fresh variables into the soybean pricing equation. President Trump announced successful negotiations with India’s President Modi, including a tariff reduction from 25% to 18% on Indian goods alongside India’s commitment to purchase over $500 billion of US energy, technology, agricultural, and coal products. This represents significant potential upside for US agricultural exports, particularly given India’s historical role as a top-five buyer of US soybean oil and its position as the leading buyer in 2025.

Meanwhile, market positioning data from the CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed speculative funds adding 7,261 contracts to their net long soybean futures and options positions as of late January, bringing their total net long to 17,321 contracts. This positioning shift suggests traders are navigating conflicting signals between export weakness and positive trade developments.

Brazilian Competition and Supply Dynamics

On the supply side, Brazilian soybean crop updates continue shaping market expectations. As of late January, the Brazilian soybean harvest stood at approximately 10% complete according to AgRural tracking. Notably, StoneX raised its Brazilian crop estimate to 181.6 MMT, representing a 4 MMT increase from previous projections, while Celeres’ forecast moved up 4.1 MMT to 181.3 MMT. This upward revision in Brazilian supply contributes additional pressure on US soybean losses as global competition intensifies.

Forward Curve Reflects Deteriorating Sentiment

Futures prices across multiple contract months demonstrate the systematic nature of current losses. March 2026 soybeans are trading at $10.59, down 5 1/4 cents, while nearby cash beans remain at $9.93 1/4 with losses of 4 1/4 cents. May 2026 contracts are off 5 1/2 cents at $10.71 1/2, July 2026 contracts have lost 6 cents to $10.84 1/2, showing consistent losses across the curve that reflect broader market weakness rather than isolated near-term pressure.

The combination of export challenges, increased Brazilian supply, and mixed trade signals suggests soybean losses may persist in the near term, though positive developments from trade negotiations could provide support for subsequent rallies.