The market still feels relatively calm: recently, I haven't been overly focused on macroeconomic data, mainly because all the data now may not be able to determine the Federal Reserve's monetary policy after June. If Waller is Trump’s spokesperson, then whether the data is good or bad won't change the direction of rate cuts. Conversely, if Waller becomes the second Powell after taking office, 2026 might be a bit tougher, but the probability of risks emerging in the US in the future will decrease.

So I personally believe that all the current data isn't the most important thing. The most important factors are whether Trump can embed a few "nails" within the Federal Reserve and how much influence the Fed Chair will have. The most interesting scenario I can think of right now is Waller and a few other governors calling for easing, while most governors insist on looking at the data. However, some colleagues say that the Fed Chair's decision on interest rates is even more important. I'm waiting to see how it unfolds.

The market in the first half of the year might not be smooth sailing. Before the Fed Chair takes office, Trump's tariffs should be a predictable turning point affecting the market. We might have to wait until after the New Year to see how it plays out.

A pullback around 1917-1895-1872 could be a good entry point, with targets around 1980-2030.

A rebound to around 1992-2030 could be a good short entry, with targets around 1920#当前行情抄底还是观望？ .